2020 slows to a crawl

Roughly half of the major news organizations have called Arizona for Biden, the other half say Arizona is too close to call (this is because there are two distinct consortiums for gathering election data, and their data on Arizona differ from each other a little bit).  I follow/trust AP, and AP called Arizona for Biden, so I've assumed Arizona is going for Biden in making my own observations.  Fox News belongs to the same data consortium as AP, which means I'm also implicitly trusting Fox News, LOL.  But Fox News doesn't lie about everything, when it comes to election data and public opinion polls, Fox News is as accurate as anybody else.  NPR has also called Arizona for Biden, because they use the same data as AP and Fox.

Meanwhile, unlike in the remaining coin-flip states, Trump has been gaining in Arizona as the late ballots have been counted.  I don't understand why, because most of these late ballots come from Democratic-leaning counties, and most late ballots around the country are mail-in ballots, which have generally broken for Biden by at least 2/3.  Some of the people who do political forecasting for a living say Arizona should never have been called for Biden in the first place, and that Trump still has a chance of winning Arizona (betting markets say 26% chance).  But AP says Biden's early lead was too big for the remaining votes to change the outcome, especially because most of the remaining votes would come from Democratic-leaning counties.  I'm going to keep Arizona in the Biden column, but reality is always subject to change when new data fall from the sky.

Everybody seems to think North Carolina is going for Trump, even though nobody has called North Carolina, and even though North Carolina will accept late-delivered ballots until next week Thursday.  Nobody can know exactly how many ballots will arrive late in North Carolina, but the experts and the betting markets agree -- NC is likely to go for Trump.  OK, I reluctantly give up on NC going for Biden, but ... the ballots are still in the mail!

The real nail-biting action is happening in PA and GA, where Trump seems to have significant leads, but Biden continues creeping closer as late ballots are counted.  Biden will win both of these states if the remaining ballots are at least 63% Biden, and so far the late ballots in both states have exceeded that percentage.  So the trend, if it holds through the end of the counting, should put Biden over the top in both PA and GA.  But it will be super fucking close in GA.  Right now betting markets give both states to Biden, but with a 57% chance for GA and 79% chance for PA.

Alaska's 3 Electoral Votes won't change the outcome either way, neither candidate needs Alaska to win.

Nevada is the last coin-flip state on the list.  Biden has a small lead there, and the general pattern of late ballots breaking for Biden should hold there, so the expectation is that Nevada will eventually be called for Biden.  Along with Arizona, Nevada puts Biden over the top, and Biden wouldn't need GA, NC, or PA.

I'm still confident that Biden will win, but this confidence rests on Arizona remaining in the Biden column, and the general drift of late ballots breaking 2/3 for Biden everywhere else.  I don't understand why Trump is gaining in Arizona, but I trust AP to have said something by now if Arizona were still in play.  And you'd think Fox News would have a great incentive to keep Arizona in play if it were truly in play.  When AP, Fox, and NPR all agree on something ... it looks solid to me.  The only reason I mention Arizona at all is because its late-ballot trend is moving in the other direction, and I don't understand why.

stock market is very happy about the Senate

I'd pulled all of my play money into cash a while back, because my crystal ball was broken -- no idea how all this election stuff would really turn out.  I'd wait until the dust settled and then come up with some new plays.

Well, the bubbly stock market was overjoyed to learn that the US Senate will likely remain in Republican hands, because that means no tax increases during the next two years.  Yay for corporate profits and capital gains!

What else can I say, bubble on, capitalists and employed professionals, enjoy your bubble all you want, continue bidding stock prices to unrealistic new highs.  It's fun when your 401(k) balance goes up and up and you feel more powerful, as though stock prices always go up and up.

The 22% of my retirement portfolio that is invested in stocks is very happy.  The other 78% is a bit annoyed, but will get over it.

I'm more concerned about the rest of humanity, and how a Republican Senate means we'll do nothing to stop climate change, nothing to reduce the cost of higher education, nothing to expand the availability of health care, little to address the current economic emergency.  To some extent, as you celebrate your 401(k) balance, you're dancing on everybody else's graves.  Capitalism is destroying the planet, while it steadily exploits the global poor and working classes to feed an expansion of economic inequality.

I can't really blame people for having a 401(k), I have one also.  The incentives ... like the matching funds, the tax deferral, the ability to fund a comfortable retirement.  But we're part of the systematic irresponsibility of the sixth mass extinction, and much of this celebratory bubble wealth is an abstract mirage.  If we all tried to cash in at the same time, it would vanish.  And all these tax cuts on the rich have fueled the largest bond market bubble in human history.

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I can't help but be captivated by your Biden/Trump battle and it's cliffhanger Electoral College ending, because Trump is so awful, and about 75 million of you voted for him anyway, a massive crowd of asshole-loving bigots -- a crowd so awful it inspired 82 million to vote for his major-party opponent instead.  But I voted for a Green Socialist.  I voted for an entirely different kind of politics.  I voted for the global environment and the international working class.  If my candidate had won, the stock and bond market bubbles would have immediately popped.  And that would have been a good thing.

If the stock market is celebrating the outcome, that means we failed.  We failed to overcome the inertia of an 18th Century Constitution and the 19th Century creation of a dozen nearly empty "states" that each gets two Senators, during the worst pandemic in 100 years and the worst recession in 90 years.  If we couldn't get a Democratic Senate this year, and if a margin of 7 million votes is only barely enough to win the Electoral College now, then I don't know how bad things will have to get before we can break out of this gridlock and solve the problems of our planet and the everyday people who don't have 401(k)s.  We're stuck.

"what happened to the blue wave?"

K asked me this question last night.

It's hard to say until we have all the results.  And -- Biden did get millions more votes than Trump got, a result that is obscured by the ongoing Electoral College drama.  Biden did better against Trump than Hillary, and he probably won, beating an incumbent President for the first time since 1992.  Beating an incumbent President is no easy feat!

A hypothesis to look at, that may explain why the results diverged from expectations:

Although voter turnout this year broke records going back over 100 years, people who do not fear COVID-19 were more likely to vote than people who do fear COVID-19.  And people who do not fear COVID-19 are much more likely to vote Republican.  (And voting by mail is more subject to screwing up than voting in person.)

So it is possible the pandemic affected turnout in ways that were impossible to predict accurately beforehand, because we've never had a pandemic during an election before, we've never been able to measure how fear of contagion might polarize along partisan lines, and also pump up in-person turnout for one party.

But another hypothesis:

Is that having Trump on the ballot is just different, that Trump appeals to people in ways that cannot be modeled or weighted appropriately by pollsters.  We've never had a politician like him before.  He stokes turnout among his supporters, and among those who hate him, but he stokes turnout among his supporters even more.  They love him even more than we hate him.  Because he's shamelessly willing to play their inner asshole on TV and Twitter, in front of all to see.  Trump does their asshole for them.  He's all their inner assholes, wishing they felt free to say whatever the fuck they want to say, like he does.

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It's hard to test either of these hypotheses in real time.  It may be Republicans won their dice rolls twice in a row, and that's all there is to it.  Polling is often a few points off, that's why there's a "margin of error" -- though everybody ignores it.

Or it may be that voting actually matters.  The only way to know the future is to vote, and then to count the votes.  Ignore the polls, and vote.  There is no "blue wave", there is no "red wave", there's only you, making your own decision.

chill, Democrats, mail-in ballots take time to tally

I think the very same Democrats who are chanting "count all the votes" are reacting emotionally to the partial vote counts they've been watching since Tuesday night, presuming that the outcome is in grave doubt, assuming that the polls were way off, wondering what went wrong, and assuming the worst about our country.

Try to think of it this way.  The pandemic led to so many people voting by mail, and mail-in votes take so much longer to count, that 11am on Thursday is the equivalent to 11pm on Election Night.  You wouldn't be upset if the race had not yet been called by 11pm on Election Night.  You wouldn't assume that the partial vote counts as of 11pm on Election Night were a valid representation of the outcome.

Sure, if there hadn't been a pandemic, it would be upsetting to not know the outcome by Thursday morning.  It would mean something like the Bush v. Gore election in 2000 where it was so close it came down to a handful of votes in one state.

THIS IS NOT THE SAME!

We just have to wait for all the mail-in ballots to be received and counted.  I'm reasonably confident -- meaning that my confidence is based on well-founded reasons -- that once all the mail-in ballots are counted, you'll see that Biden won the Electoral College with room to spare, that Biden won the popular vote by around 7 million votes or 4-5 percentage points, and that there was nothing the Supreme Court could have done about it.

Chill, Democrats.  AP is one state away from calling the race for Biden, but the remaining states need time to count their ballots.  That's all :-)

Marco says "enough"

I almost believe Tate believes what he's saying.  And that's when I've had enough.

"OK, Tate, get up, get out, leave.  And close the door behind you."

Tate looked surprised and was about to say something, so I continued, "Nope, get out.  Don't say anything.  Out!"

He got up, quietly said, "Yes, Sir," and did what he was told.

Chris turned off the infrareds light as the door closed, the bastard.  Darkness again.

"You really are a bastard," I said toward the dark ceiling.

Nothing.

"Hey, Chris, I'm tired of talking with the good cop.  Now it's your turn.  Get yourself down here and face me.  And either bring me some clothes, or you're naked also."

Chris chuckled!  "Marco, Marco, so assertive, just like old times.  Sure, I'll join you down there, but there's one problem.  You have to turn off your infrared vision.  You aren't allowed to see me."

I got up and stomped a foot on the ground, "Another of your 'booby traps'?  How many of those are there?"

"No," Chris replied, in a friendly tone, "It's just part of our long-standing agreement, that you don't remember right now.  You agreed that whenever you visited me, you'd wear a blindfold.  It's a thing with me.  I don't like to be seen."

"How the hell can you hold me to 'agreements' that I don't remember?  No, I'm not turning off my vision."

Chris snorted.  "Well, then you'll have to put on the blindfold that's underneath your mattress.  Otherwise, I can talk with you from here."

"First tell me all of the 'booby traps'.  I don't want to get my balls shocked again."  Also, I think when he got down here I was going to punch him in the face.

"OK, all the booby traps, here ya go, I'll read the numbered list to you.  Just remember, all of these were your idea, not mine.

1.  No orgasms

2.  No food -- which personally I think is even worse than no orgasms.  You can have all the water and Gatorade and even liquor if you want, but no food."

"Wait, why no food?  You want me to starve?"

Chris protested, "These were not my idea!  I think the purpose of the 'no food' rule is to make sure you feel some urgency about disarming the memory bomb, instead of just hanging out here with us indefinitely."

I protested back at him, "How long can a person live on water and Gatorade without food?!"

"A few weeks, maybe?  I'm not going to let you die, Marco, we'll just blow up your memories if it comes to that."  Chris even sounded like he cared.

"If we're going to blow them up anyway, I'd rather have an orgasm first, and then eat.  OK, continue."

I heard Tate laugh at that one, I think, I guess he's up there also now.

And then, yes, Tate continued the list for Chris,

"3.  You aren't allowed to wear any clothes or shoes -- we're fine being naked also, we're used to it.  And we can adjust the temperature as needed.

4.  You aren't allowed to leave your suite,"

"Oh, I have an entire suite?"

Chris barked back, "Tate was going to show you around, dumbass, before you threw him out."

Tate continued,

"5.  You're not allowed to watch any video, listen to any audio, read any text, except for materials that were already in your suite from before, including no Internet, no recordings, no telephone, no computers.  You're only supposed to hear your own voice, and the two of us.  I guess whatever is written on the wall was there before.

6.  I don't think there's a six.  Chris, is there a six?"

"There is a six, but it is implicit in the design of the suite -- you can't see anything outside of the suite.  So you have to be closed in your room when we enter or leave the suite, so you cannot see beyond the door to the suite.  I think implicit in the rules is that you cannot have visitors either.  So, really no communication with the outside world, just with the two of us."

This was helpful, none of these were rules I could easily break by accident.  Except for having a wet dream ...

"OK, enough yelling through the ceiling, both of you get down here."

Chris reminded me, "First put on your blindfold, it's under the mattress."

Fuck. "OK."  How will I know Chris is really naked if I can't see him?  And it's a shame I won't be able to look at Tate some more.  Seeing Tate's body is the only part of this crazy setup that I like.  So far.

-----

I laid back on the mattress, wearing the blindfold.  It didn't take long to hear the door opening, and their footsteps.

Chris started, "Normally I'd hug you upon greeting, but I imagine you think I'm going to murder you soon, so maybe not."

It felt like Tate sat down on the mattress and grabbed my hand, he's got something about holding hands, and that's OK.  It sounded like Chris sat on the floor.

"Assuming for the moment I believe all this crap, how do I disarm this 'memory bomb'?  Let's go ahead and do this, so I can leave, or you can kill me, or you can wipe my brain again and keep playing this game with me forever."

I heard Tate take a sharp breath, and he squeezed my hand more tightly, saying, "Marco, we don't know.  You didn't tell us.  Supposedly you left yourself clues."

Chris agreed, "Yup, we don't know.  Listen Marco, this wasn't our idea, and you sort of sprang it on us, and then you triggered yourself before we could stop you or talk you out of it, and now we're stuck taking care of you.  Like Tate said before, we don't think you were happy with your memories, and we're concerned you won't be able to figure this out.  Or that you didn't want to figure this out.  Just one last adventure with your friends before you wiped everything."

I'm starting to think maybe this isn't a game or a kidnapping, I mean, these guys don't sound like they're trying to control me for their own pleasure.  They sound like they care, although they were trying to be cheerful and playful about it.

"How did you zap my balls?  And what do you mean, 'wipe everything', didn't I already delete my memories?  And how did I do all this?!"

Tate took my other hand in his hands.  I'm still blindfolded on the mattress.  I'm starting to think Tate is more worried than I am.

Chris sighed.  "You've temporarily hidden a lot of your memories inside the memory bomb, but if it goes off, I think you'll become a vegetable.  For a while.  We'll help you with physical therapy and re-education and stuff, and we'll see whether we can find any of your memory backups, if you didn't destroy them all, but ah, I think you won't even be able to speak at first."

OK, I'm finally afraid.  "Why did I do this?"

Tate stroked my hands with his own, then he said, "You've ... you've got PTTD.  Post-Traumatic Time Disorder.  You were too close to the Vancouver Time Bomb when it exploded.  I think this is your way ... of committing suicide."

"Yeah," Chris agreed.  "Sort of like a Last Supper, or a Last Fuck, before dying.  Not really dying, but, erasing your soul.  Starting over.  A reincarnation."

They almost have me believing them.

"Can I have that sedative now?" I asked.

"Sure," Tate replied, dutifully rising to find it.

"How did you do this?" Chris answered, while Tate was feeling around near the bucket, "You're the best brain implant hacker in the world, even better than me.  And there is a booby trap #7, but it's for me -- if I plug you in, so I can try to fix you, then you immediately blow."

Vancouver Time Bomb?

That stuff acted quickly, I was feeling calmer than I have since I woke up. And now Tate snuggled up against me, which was absolutely fine. I think maybe we've spent time snuggling before.

"OK ... 'Vancouver Time Bomb' ... I have no idea what you're talking about." I really didn't. WTF is a time bomb? WTF is PTTD?

Tate murmured into my ear, "That's because it hasn't happened yet."

"Speak up, boy, I'm in the room also," Chris snapped.

"Yes, Sir," Tate said more loudly as he snuggled deeper into my side.

Yes, I could totally just hang out with Tate until I get super hungry, then I'll fuck him into my own oblivion. Sounds perfect. Who needs memories? Assuming he's old enough, and consents. My cock likes this idea. I think his does also. Sedatives are cool.

Chris answered more authoritatively, "Not everybody thinks PTTD is real, but because you've got an implant, we have digital recordings of how the Vancouver Time Bomb affects you. In the future."

I really was almost believing these guys until they started talking about time travel. Well, about me being a time traveler!

"I'm from the future? Hahahaha, OK, how about we all have a good fuck and then you let me go home?"

Tate found a way to snuggle even deeper, while Chris seemed to move closer, and started to hold my free left hand.

"No, Marco, you aren't from the future. In the future, you're too close to the Vancouver Time Bomb when it goes off, and the effects fuck you up in the past. Our past, and our present. I sympathize with you, I really do, and part of me is happy that right now you don't remember any of this."

Was I kissing Tate's forehead now?  I forced myself to stop, "Everybody knows time travel is a paradox! You're so bullshitting me. But this is the best bareminder fantasy ever, you guys. Bravo!  How many times have we played this game?"

Tate moved away a bit so he could speak, "I would never bullshit you. The main effect of PTTD, the way you described it to me once it started happening to you, is you start to experience causation as working in both directions, and your experience of time wobbles back and forth, you feel like you're speeding forward in time a few seconds, then backward in time a few seconds like bobbing on a time wave."

Chris added, "Yes, it was becoming extremely disorienting for you. And unfortunately, as your subjective time point moves closer to the time when the bomb hits, your symptoms get worse. You were feeling mentally and physically ill, and it was only going to get worse as time went on."

Tate volunteered, "It's great seeing you like this, right now, you're back to normal, you're sassy and fun again."

"So why the hell would I want those memories back?!"

Tate shrugged next to me. Chris sighed.

"We've warned you that you might decide getting your memories back would be too difficult," Chris said. As Tate nodded next to me.

I suddenly sat up, earning a little squeak from Tate, but, "But, packing away only some of my memories, as I've done now, shouldn't cure this PTTD. That doesn't make sense. I should still be feeling it right now." And then I realized I was thinking like a memory hacker. "Hah! I think we just unlocked the first clue!"

I could feel ... another section of my brain, spinning up, coming online ... I hadn't known it was there ... like a chunk of myself just popped into the slot.  I was Marco, the memory hacker again.  Not all of my memories came back, but my memory hacker skills had popped back online.  Yeah, before I'd wondered what my occupation was.  Now I know again.

I'd figured out a way to temporarily offset the PTTD symptoms.  And it's working!  But why did I have to design this elaborate and potentially destructive memory bomb in order to temporarily offset the PTTD?  Oh shit.

Oh shit shit shit.

"Guys, the only reason I'm not feeling the PTTD symptoms right now, is because this memory bomb will go off!"