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Have I ever experienced such a quiet Christmas Eve?  Ah, yes, in 2002.  I deliberately spent Christmas Eve by myself, in my studio apartment in SW DC, because my father had died a month before, and for the first time in my life I was an orphan.  I deliberately chose not to travel for Christmas.  For all of my life I'd spent Christmas Eve with one or both of my parents.  In 2002 I worked a half day, then went to the gym, then to the Safeway for ingredients, then baked cookies for hours.  It was snowing, one of the few white Christmases I've experienced in the DC area.  The next day, Christmas Day, I expected to see local friends.  It became my new tradition, to not travel for Christmas, to see local friends.

-----

Tonight I cooked dinner for T, and then he went directly to bed.  Quietest Christmas Eve in 18 years.  Usually we have our Christmas Eve Orphan's Party here at the house, and every friend we have who hasn't traveled for the holiday drops by to share drinks, desserts, and board games.  Sometimes the hot tub and/or the fire pit.  Sometimes competitive video games in our Media Cave.

-----

The following year, 2003, I went to Hampton, Virginia, with KWC to stay with his family.  KWC, my first live-in boyfriend, from the 1990s.  We stayed friends after he broke up with me, after I started fucking around and he fell in love with Eliot.  I still send his parents a Christmas gift every year, in a way they're my substitute parents.  I spent many a night under their roof when I was younger.  Sometimes having sex with KWC after his parents had fallen asleep.

Then in 2004, I was in the middle of moving in with T, having met him that January.  Oh, I was so happy to be moving in with him after living alone for years.  We were still in our honeymoon stage.  He hadn't begun souring on me yet.  The souring happened after we bought this house together, in 2006.  Then he decided I wasn't any good at being a joint homeowner.  But, he'd been the one who pushed us into it before I was ready.  Maybe I never was going to be ready for homeownership.  Then he got so mad at me about so many things, big and small.  I tried so hard to please him and it never worked, so I gave up.  Then we did poly wrong, adding other relationships instead of fixing our own first, trying a triad when we couldn't communicate well with each other.  We never did fix our relationship, although couples counseling got us to a point where we understood each other better, well enough to be mostly-friendly housemates, so long as T wasn't feeling upset about one of his other relationships -- then he'd take out his frustrations on me.  Sometimes I'm shocked we still live together, given the long list of grievances he's collected about me over the past 16 years, and our complete lack of a sex life.  For a few years he was mainly focused on B, while I was mainly focused on K, but ... last year B let his husband move back in, this year K moved away with his boyfriend.

And meanwhile the Pandemic has forced us to spend day and night together, except when I head to the condo for Time to Self.

-----

Now we have our medium-term plan, to keep the house together for now, to take care of the pets together for now, perhaps until we retire and split up.  After the Vaccine I'll be open to a new relationship, though.  If T and B aren't able to patch things up now that B's husband is moving Northeast, I expect T will also be open to a new relationship.  So we might not last until retirement, we might find new people to live with instead.  Who knows.  Maybe T and B will live together after all, and I'll move out.  I kinda doubt T could live with anybody else, I've seen his temper.

I'm not sure living with a romantic partner is the best idea for me either.  At this age I might be better off dating one or more people who don't want to live with me.  Let me have regular time by myself in my own apartment or condo, while we have frequent sleepovers.

I'm not worried about being too old to find somebody or somebodies new.  My father and both grandfathers before me had no trouble remarrying after their spouses passed away.  I get crushes on people easily enough, I'm reasonably attractive.  The tricky part will be engaging my rational brain -- deciding whether the person I have a crush on is really the kind of person I'll get along with over the long haul.

But maybe there is no long haul.  Especially when no kids are involved.  I often think the main reason I'm still living with T is not T himself but our pets, who are all now over 10 years old.  Is that just an excuse, or did I make a commitment to these living beings to take care of them until death do us part?  And I think all of them need both T and me, there's too many of them for one human who has a full-time job outside of the house (in normal times).  Before I used to think the reason I hadn't moved out yet was because the house was still underwater, but now we have plenty of equity.  Now would be a good time to sell and split the profits.  And maybe if it weren't for the Pandemic ... I can't imagine living alone right now, or playing roommate roulette with a newbie.

Yeah, we're both living with somebody we know how to live with, taking care of pets and house and each other together, until sometime in 2021, when circumstances will change.

-----

I kinda didn't want to dump all this on my readers on a Christmas Eve, when most of you are busier than I am.  Thinking about marking this private?  My one Quarantine human is sick and went to bed.  I hope the rest of you have a bit more socializing happening than I do tonight.  But I'm OK.  I'm not depressed.  Somewhat nostalgic, and missing certain people, but also ... a bit relieved that I haven't spent the past 48 hours preparing for a huge party that will wear me out, that I'll spend the next 48 hours cleaning up after.

If our plan to have one other household over had worked out, I might have felt afterward like it was the perfect Christmas.  I think if I were living by myself again, spending Christmas with just a small group of people would be nice.  Some of the people who I keep in touch with regularly anyway, instead of the mob of people I really only see at Christmas.

Back in 2002, after my father's death, that's what I wanted Christmas to be.  Spend it with a few friends.  Ditto in 2003, spent it with KWC's small family of four people.  Inviting everybody we know to spend Christmas Eve with us, that's a T thing, not a Bug thing.

I'm spending this Christmas Eve with Astrid.  I think I'll watch some more Outlander until I get sleepy.  Then tomorrow morning, I'll open presents and a bottle of champagne with T.  And cook two meals!  Then Saturday I'll head to the condo for Time to Self.  Just that one night, not a Friday-Sunday stay, because I care too much about T, despite everything over the past 16 years, or because of everything over the past 16 years, to leave him alone on Christmas Day.
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TEXAS V. PENNSYLVANIA, ET AL.
The State of Texas’s motion for leave to file a bill of complaint is denied for lack of standing under Article III of the Constitution. Texas has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections.


The betting markets expected a 3.6% chance of the Supreme Court awarding victory to Trump.  I thought it was 0%.
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I feel deep ecology is one of those things, once you see it, you cannot unsee it,

it's the fault of all the things, all my curiosities, all the books, all the podcasts, all the Internets, everything in my past spinning into now, these 53 years, these 6^e11 seconds,

the library inside my head folding upon itself, recursive intelligence, the unhappy self, slamming into the Wall of Physics, as we all must,

plus meditation, and Astrid snuggling next to me while I sleep, pretending to be K, LOL,

what remains?

zen remains, my little game, back to 7 minutes, but I fall asleep, dreams so close, they are minutes away, and my cock gets hard inside its cage, chafing my balls,

-----

I'm afraid to get a haircut because there's a 2% chance it will give me COVID, and then give T COVID, and, shit,

so ... I have a night to self at the house ...

B is turning from a gas into a solid once more ... phase change ... I haven't seen T, prepare himself like this, in a long time ...
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The Electoral College was decided by about 78,000 votes in Trump's surprise win of 2016.

This time, Biden won the Electoral College by about 44,000 votes.  Although the result was clear to many experienced poll watchers by the morning following the election, it was still close enough that major news outlets didn't call the election until Saturday.  The need to count all the mail-in ballots contributed to this delay in calling the election, but so did the small size of the margin -- 44,000 votes out of 153 million, or 0.03%.  Few expected this election to be so close, after Biden's steady polling lead prior to the vote.  This time, nobody could blame the media for focusing too much on "the emails", and social media companies tried to do a better job of policing the fake news.

Although many Democrats feel Trump's ongoing challenges to the outcome are an unprecedented "attack on democracy", it's the closeness of the Electoral College results that motivates Trump to keep fighting.  If he could somehow change or discard 44,000 votes in three states, he'd continue with a second term.  Even though Biden leads in the popular vote count by over six million votes.

Most of Biden's popular vote lead comes from just one state: California.  Biden has a surplus of four million extra votes there.  But those four million extra votes in California don't matter as much as the 44,000 extra votes he received in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.

If you're a Democrat living in California, you're part of the problem, heh.  You need to move to a swing state.  But I'm part of the problem also, living in Maryland.

Would I move to another state after I retire solely because it is a swing state?  To nearly everybody, that would feel like the tail wagging the dog, uprooting their entire life so their vote might matter.  But why does anybody in California bother to vote at all?  If you don't live in a swing state, it is performative civics, makes you feel good but practically useless.  Why did I bother to vote at all?

I feel I cannot move until I reach retirement age in 2027, I'd be tossing away a pension and lifetime health insurance.  Most families feel rooted where they live, by employment, schools and personal relationships.  I imagine hardly anybody thinks, "I should move to a swing state, and then also live in a swing congressional district within that state."  Which means the people who do live in swing states find this status arbitrarily forced upon them -- and maybe a lot of them don't like it, because it means they are drenched with political ads and mailers and phone calls and text messages and door knockers -- when most of them already know who they'll vote for.

-----

I was talking with a friend who votes for Democrats about the prospect of Trump running again in 2024.  This friend replied, "Bring it on, he will only ensure a second term for Biden."

I disagree.  Trump ran two extremely close elections, from the viewpoint of the Electoral College, which is the only point that matters.  What if four years from now we're in another recession?  What if Biden, now by far the oldest person to ever serve as President, becomes disabled or dies, throwing Democrats into disarray over who to run in 2024?  What if Biden simply does a poor job of running the country, especially while hobbled by a Republican Senate, unable to fix any of our ongoing problems?  If the globally unprecedented bond market bubble pops, the next four years could be a difficult ride.

-----

At moments like this I think I care way too much about politics, and do way too little about it.
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I've always been intrigued by NaNoWriMo. I've always enjoyed creative writing, with no concern about whether it would "sell" or not, but it looks like I needed this Pandemic Quarantine to get through the entire month, though I'm only 2/3 of the way now, but ... having never made it this far, I'm realizing: Wait, I have to figure out how to end this story on November 30!  Where is this going? :-)

This series of stories started years ago with a spontaneous short story about Chris, an unhappy clone, one of the first human clones, coming to terms with who he was and with his creator and why he was created, then forging an independent life for himself.  Later I wrote about Matt and Alex, and Matt meeting Chris -- but all this a couple decades later.  With Tate thrown in on the side -- I don't think that was for NaNoWriMo, I think it was also spontaneous creative writing.

But last November I wanted to do NaNoWriMo, and I started off with Tate's mother Talon, and made the story mainly about Tate, except I had to travel for work in mid-November and totally lost my thread.  And it was kind of YA, about the Problems of a Teen.  But that work travel was too stressful!  No room in my head for all these characters.  Also trying to hang out with friends in Chicago, making it into a leisure trip.

[I still remember, a handsome young man playing a guitar and singing, inside a used book store, me having an instant crush on him.  While simultaneously feeling depressed because the person I'd wanted to meet that night had flaked on me.  Sad, but, look at that beautiful young man, just a few feet away from me.  Such beauty exists on this planet.]

As K was leaving for Portland, I knew I needed some art therapy.  First I went after music, but because I'd lost my files from last time, the learning curve was going to be steep.  It was easier to slide into NaNoWriMo, because I write a lot all the time already.  Last year I'd proven to myself I could keep up the required word count pace, to write a novel within a month.  I still want to do music!  But right now I'm writing.  Writing.  Writing.  Thinking about Writing.

And it's fun!  I'm finally having fun, doing something new and creative, during Quarantine.  And now suddenly doing more "new" stuff -- interacting with sexy fellas online.

Goddess, the past two months have been a lot.  The entire year has been a lot.  Ever since I realized this Pandemic was going to fuck everything up.  And then it did.  And Trump still won't let go.

-----

The best thing about being 53 -- I'm more comfortable being me than ever before.  I'd never go back to being younger.  I wasn't yet myself.  I think -- probably the 50s is when human males get to know themselves best, before the aging process becomes overwhelming.  But we'll see how long I can keep this going, heh.
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One of the attorneys who works for me had to abruptly depart for Europe because her father is dying of COVID-19, back in her country of origin.  She told me over the phone as she was packing her bags, "This is the worst thing that has ever happened to me, Bug."

Her father was in the hospital with pneumonia, and had stopped eating.  I couldn't say out loud to her, that when people -- or other mammals -- stop eating, it's a sign that we're ready to go.  I feel sad for her and her family.  Maybe he'll pull through ...

It's not only here in the US that we're collectively fucking up.

Be careful, everybody.  Please.  This virus is literally decimating our elders, in the original sense of the word -- killing one of every ten.  Count you and four of your coworkers -- the five of you together have ten parents -- one of these parents will die before next spring if we can't stop this thing.
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It wasn't my obsessive modeling of the outcome, it was that the rest of you didn't believe me.

Shared Reality has arrived.
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Biden Edges Closer to Victory (NYT)

Biden Increases Lead (Fox)

Biden Inches Closer to Victory (WP)

Biden Moves Closer to Presidency (WSJ)

Biden Nears Election Victory (Bloomberg)

It's awesome for their ratings to keep everybody on edge like this. Meanwhile, the productivity of white collar workers plunged this week.

-----

It sounds like AP will call the race when Biden's lead in Pennsylvania reaches 0.5%, which would avoid an automatic recount? Perhaps this will finally happen today. But it is also possible they're all waiting to make the final call until it is mathematically impossible for the outstanding ballots in the remaining uncalled states to change the outcome, in order to avoid charges of bias from Republicans.

This is a higher standard than usual -- mathematically impossible -- and it would be applied arbitrarily to the remaining uncalled states merely because calling any one of them would also call the entire race.

Mathematically impossible means even if all the remaining outstanding ballots went for Trump, which is plainly an unrealistic standard. Lots of states were called the moment their polls closed, because everybody knows they aren't swing states. My own state of Maryland, for example, was immediately called for Biden.

I've never paid so much attention to this "calling" process before, because it's never been so SLOW before, it would happen before I had time to dig into the details. This time it's like I'm playing one of those web-based incremental games. Except I have nothing to do with the outcome, I'm just trying to model an incremental process, and discovering that the media calls are entirely arbitrary. Now that we're at the national tipping point, the media executives are telling their analysts, "Let's be totally fucking sure about this." And the analysts are saying, "We are totally fucking sure about this." And the executives are saying, "Bring me more data first. We have to be totally fucking sure about this." And the analysts bring more data, and the executives want still more.

-----

If you'd like to read an article that already called the race for Biden, here you go:

https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-general-election-against-donald-trump-2020-11

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Biden is now ahead in states with 286 Electoral Votes. I expect he will also take the lead in Pennsylvania later today, for 306 Electoral Votes.

The most uncertain state is now Arizona, where Biden currently has a lead, but the late ballots have so far been trending toward Trump, unlike every other coin-flip state. But, as I wrote before, several news organizations already called Arizona for Biden, claiming Biden was far enough ahead to hold his lead. If Arizona does hold, then we're looking at Biden 306 / Trump 232.

But Biden doesn't need either Arizona or Georgia if he wins Pennsylvania. He'll be leading in enough states to win even if Trump somehow yanks one of them away via a recount or a successful legal challenge.

Betting markets now give Biden a 92% chance of winning. Hah, remember when they were expecting Trump to win, back on Election Night? And I disagreed, LOL.

If the networks call Pennsylvania for Biden later today, then it's over. I have no control over when a network calls a state or the race, but this was baked in for Biden way back on Wednesday morning when he took the lead in Michigan. After that point, it was just a matter of counting the rest of the votes. That's when I decided this was over.

And, already, as I expected, Trump allies are talking up him running again in 2024.

-----

Now we have the problem of -- what if Trump won't leave? Reportedly, Trump plans to oppose any networks calling the election for Biden, refusing to concede the race. What if Trump just refuses to leave? What if he calls the Electoral College a fraud?

One friend of mine who has contacts in the Secret Service told me that if Trump won't leave the White House on January 20, the Secret Service will firmly escort him off the premises. She said, "The people guarding him don't particularly like Trump."

Yeah, but what if Trump, as Commander in Chief, orders a military detachment to the White House to protect him from a disloyal Secret Service, and to deny Biden entry? What if Trump fires the Joint Chiefs and the Secretary of Defense and installs acting military and civilian leadership who are personally loyal to him?

I mean, what's the plan if Trump attempts a coup? What if Trump calls for his supporters to surround the White House in a show of popular force? And orders all federal police to stand down?

-----

What if the Republican-controlled state legislatures in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all vote to set aside the popular vote in their states, instead appointing Republican Electors to the Electoral College, as the US Constitution would seem to allow?  Would the Supreme Court endorse such a scheme, overturning Biden's 7-million edge in the national popular vote, as well as overturning the popular vote in these six states, to award a second term to Trump?

-----

I can use statistics to model and predict how people will vote (within a margin of error), and I can use statistics to model and predict how a vote count will turn out, but I cannot use statistics to model and predict how Trump and his loyalists will act once the media declare Biden our President-Elect. Will Trump try to order the National Park Service to close the Mall so Biden cannot prepare to give his Inauguration Address?  There's a lot of potential mischief available to a President who does not respect either democracy or our republican institutions.

I don't think anybody knows how far Trump will go, or when he'll fold. We've never had somebody like him in the White House. It may require people with guns to force him to leave.  Or Biden may have to set up shop somewhere else until he can broker a peaceful resolution.

It's kind of up to you, Republicans.  Will you accept the outcome?  You lost.  Can you accept that?  Are you willing to take your turn on the outside?  This is not a decision I can make for you.
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I think the very same Democrats who are chanting "count all the votes" are reacting emotionally to the partial vote counts they've been watching since Tuesday night, presuming that the outcome is in grave doubt, assuming that the polls were way off, wondering what went wrong, and assuming the worst about our country.

Try to think of it this way.  The pandemic led to so many people voting by mail, and mail-in votes take so much longer to count, that 11am on Thursday is the equivalent to 11pm on Election Night.  You wouldn't be upset if the race had not yet been called by 11pm on Election Night.  You wouldn't assume that the partial vote counts as of 11pm on Election Night were a valid representation of the outcome.

Sure, if there hadn't been a pandemic, it would be upsetting to not know the outcome by Thursday morning.  It would mean something like the Bush v. Gore election in 2000 where it was so close it came down to a handful of votes in one state.

THIS IS NOT THE SAME!

We just have to wait for all the mail-in ballots to be received and counted.  I'm reasonably confident -- meaning that my confidence is based on well-founded reasons -- that once all the mail-in ballots are counted, you'll see that Biden won the Electoral College with room to spare, that Biden won the popular vote by around 7 million votes or 4-5 percentage points, and that there was nothing the Supreme Court could have done about it.

Chill, Democrats.  AP is one state away from calling the race for Biden, but the remaining states need time to count their ballots.  That's all :-)
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K asked me this question last night.

It's hard to say until we have all the results.  And -- Biden did get millions more votes than Trump got, a result that is obscured by the ongoing Electoral College drama.  Biden did better against Trump than Hillary, and he probably won, beating an incumbent President for the first time since 1992.  Beating an incumbent President is no easy feat!

A hypothesis to look at, that may explain why the results diverged from expectations:

Although voter turnout this year broke records going back over 100 years, people who do not fear COVID-19 were more likely to vote than people who do fear COVID-19.  And people who do not fear COVID-19 are much more likely to vote Republican.  (And voting by mail is more subject to screwing up than voting in person.)

So it is possible the pandemic affected turnout in ways that were impossible to predict accurately beforehand, because we've never had a pandemic during an election before, we've never been able to measure how fear of contagion might polarize along partisan lines, and also pump up in-person turnout for one party.

But another hypothesis:

Is that having Trump on the ballot is just different, that Trump appeals to people in ways that cannot be modeled or weighted appropriately by pollsters.  We've never had a politician like him before.  He stokes turnout among his supporters, and among those who hate him, but he stokes turnout among his supporters even more.  They love him even more than we hate him.  Because he's shamelessly willing to play their inner asshole on TV and Twitter, in front of all to see.  Trump does their asshole for them.  He's all their inner assholes, wishing they felt free to say whatever the fuck they want to say, like he does.

-----

It's hard to test either of these hypotheses in real time.  It may be Republicans won their dice rolls twice in a row, and that's all there is to it.  Polling is often a few points off, that's why there's a "margin of error" -- though everybody ignores it.

Or it may be that voting actually matters.  The only way to know the future is to vote, and then to count the votes.  Ignore the polls, and vote.  There is no "blue wave", there is no "red wave", there's only you, making your own decision.
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Roughly half of the major news organizations have called Arizona for Biden, the other half say Arizona is too close to call (this is because there are two distinct consortiums for gathering election data, and their data on Arizona differ from each other a little bit).  I follow/trust AP, and AP called Arizona for Biden, so I've assumed Arizona is going for Biden in making my own observations.  Fox News belongs to the same data consortium as AP, which means I'm also implicitly trusting Fox News, LOL.  But Fox News doesn't lie about everything, when it comes to election data and public opinion polls, Fox News is as accurate as anybody else.  NPR has also called Arizona for Biden, because they use the same data as AP and Fox.

Meanwhile, unlike in the remaining coin-flip states, Trump has been gaining in Arizona as the late ballots have been counted.  I don't understand why, because most of these late ballots come from Democratic-leaning counties, and most late ballots around the country are mail-in ballots, which have generally broken for Biden by at least 2/3.  Some of the people who do political forecasting for a living say Arizona should never have been called for Biden in the first place, and that Trump still has a chance of winning Arizona (betting markets say 26% chance).  But AP says Biden's early lead was too big for the remaining votes to change the outcome, especially because most of the remaining votes would come from Democratic-leaning counties.  I'm going to keep Arizona in the Biden column, but reality is always subject to change when new data fall from the sky.

Everybody seems to think North Carolina is going for Trump, even though nobody has called North Carolina, and even though North Carolina will accept late-delivered ballots until next week Thursday.  Nobody can know exactly how many ballots will arrive late in North Carolina, but the experts and the betting markets agree -- NC is likely to go for Trump.  OK, I reluctantly give up on NC going for Biden, but ... the ballots are still in the mail!

The real nail-biting action is happening in PA and GA, where Trump seems to have significant leads, but Biden continues creeping closer as late ballots are counted.  Biden will win both of these states if the remaining ballots are at least 63% Biden, and so far the late ballots in both states have exceeded that percentage.  So the trend, if it holds through the end of the counting, should put Biden over the top in both PA and GA.  But it will be super fucking close in GA.  Right now betting markets give both states to Biden, but with a 57% chance for GA and 79% chance for PA.

Alaska's 3 Electoral Votes won't change the outcome either way, neither candidate needs Alaska to win.

Nevada is the last coin-flip state on the list.  Biden has a small lead there, and the general pattern of late ballots breaking for Biden should hold there, so the expectation is that Nevada will eventually be called for Biden.  Along with Arizona, Nevada puts Biden over the top, and Biden wouldn't need GA, NC, or PA.

I'm still confident that Biden will win, but this confidence rests on Arizona remaining in the Biden column, and the general drift of late ballots breaking 2/3 for Biden everywhere else.  I don't understand why Trump is gaining in Arizona, but I trust AP to have said something by now if Arizona were still in play.  And you'd think Fox News would have a great incentive to keep Arizona in play if it were truly in play.  When AP, Fox, and NPR all agree on something ... it looks solid to me.  The only reason I mention Arizona at all is because its late-ballot trend is moving in the other direction, and I don't understand why.
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It is probable that AP will call Michigan for Biden by tomorrow morning.  It is possible -- flip a coin possible -- that AP will call Georgia for Biden by tomorrow morning.

If Biden wins the coin toss in Georgia, then this is over, we're done.

If Trump wins the coin toss in Georgia, then it will probably be days until AP calls Nevada, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina.  That's because these three states allow late arrival ballots -- ballots are literally still arriving in the mail tomorrow, and Friday -- and AP is not going to call these states while ballots are still arriving unless they can be sure those late arrivals can't possibly change the outcome.

So, either you wake up tomorrow and Biden has Georgia and he won, or you'll be waiting for days for another state to be called.

Nevertheless, Biden will win.  Biden is in the lead in enough states for 270 Electoral Votes, and the balance of the remaining ballots to be counted will favor Biden.  That's why I called the race earlier today when Biden pulled ahead in Michigan -- he was ahead in enough states to win, so he will win.

And Trump can't stop Biden by getting any court to stop counting the votes, because Biden is already ahead.  Stop counting, Biden wins.  Keep counting, Biden wins.  Biden will win.  But it may yet take several days before the race is called by the news organizations, because the ballots are still arriving in the mail.
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Biden is moving toward the official finish line a bit faster than Trump, AP called Wisconsin for Biden at 2:36pm.  That's two states Biden has taken from Trump's 2016 stable.  If AP calls Michigan and one more state for Biden, then they will call the Presidency for Biden.

Hang in there, peeps!
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Biden wins the Electoral College!  He's ahead in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, that's all he needs for 270.

The betting markets now agree with me, and also throw in Pennsylvania for 290.  Georgia is still close, if Biden pulls ahead in Georgia then 306/232, but he doesn't need Georgia to win.

It's all over but for the counting, LOL.  But even if Trump gets some sort of Supreme Court ruling to stop the counting in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, he's still going to lose :-)
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None of the major news services gives Trump more than 213 Electoral Votes as I wake.  They disagree on whether Biden has 227, or 238, or 225, or 224 ... but all agree not enough for Biden to win yet.  The main differences are whether they've called Arizona or Maine for Biden -- but AP has called Arizona and Maine for Biden and I trust AP.  So -- I'm going with Biden 238 / Trump 213 as I wake.  Biden is in the lead, but hasn't crossed the finish line yet.

So far, Biden has taken one state from Trump's 2016 stable: Arizona.  But he needs more than Arizona to win.

Betting markets say it's 2/3 Trump, with Trump winning those same three Upper Midwest states that he won last time (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), but the betting markets have been leaning pro-Trump all along as compared to either the polling average or the expert predictions.  Trump's not even leading in Wisconsin right now, so if you're expecting Trump to win Wisconsin your bias is showing.

If Trump holds onto his lead in each of the uncalled states in which he's currently ahead -- Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, then he wins the Electoral College.  But ...

But before Election Day, all the experts predicted Trump would be ahead when the Election Day results were counted on Election Night, because not all of the mail-in ballots would be counted yet.

In Georgia & Michigan, they're still counting the mail-in ballots, which are expected to tilt 2/3 Biden.

In Pennsylvania, they're still counting the mail-in ballots, which are expected to tilt 2/3 Biden, and these ballots can still arrive until Friday.

In North Carolina, they're still counting the mail-in ballots, which are expected to tilt 2/3 Biden, and these ballots can still arrive until next week Thursday.

Alaska is only 3 Electoral Votes and isn't expected to be the tipping point state, but they won't even start counting their mail-in ballots until next week.  So forget about watching Alaska.

In Nevada & Wisconsin, Biden currently leads and counting the rest of the mail-in ballots will probably increase his lead.

So we're in the scenario that many feared and many expected -- we need to wait until all the mail-in ballots are counted, and until they are all counted President Trump looks like he's winning -- and as they are counted Trump's lead will shrink.

What we see this morning is probably Trump's high water mark for 2020 -- the needle will move toward Biden from here, with everybody wondering will it move enough?

Biden's got 238, needs 270.  Add Wisconsin and Nevada where he's already in the lead and will probably keep his lead, then he's up to 254.

He needs only one of the following states and Biden wins: Georgia (270), Michigan (270), or Pennsylvania (274).

If he gets only North Carolina, we get an Electoral College tie (269) and nobody wants that.  So forget about watching North Carolina.

If Biden pulls into the lead in either Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania as the mail-in ballots are counted, then he's probably going to win.  Trump needs to keep all three states to avoid a Biden win.

The popular vote doesn't matter, but Biden is already a couple million votes ahead and that lead will only increase from here.  Trump only wins via a second Electoral College upset.  If the US were a real democracy, we'd call it for Biden now.  But thanks to your 18th Century Constitution, Trump still has a chance of a second term.
m_d_h: (Default)
So, what, two seconds after I registered the writing on the door, the infrareds light flicked off.

Fuck!

FUCK!!

I mean, I was actually yelling, "FUCK!!"

Those infrareds were so cool, and then they were gone, and I was back into the darknesses.  And now I know the comprehensive numerity of darknesses.  I mean, numerosity.  There are multiplicities of darkness that I didn't understand before.

Now so fucking dark, fuck.

-----

No, I'm not afraid, I'm angry.  So, OK, I do feel emotion.  If I'm an android, I have an emotion chip.  Or maybe I'm just a cyborg.  Or it's just my friggin' eyes.

Fuck this.  OK, what am I going to do.

"Hey, this isn't fun anymore, let me out!"

...

"Hello!"

....

"Fuck,"

OK, breathe, calm down, this isn't helping.  I need to pee, and I'm hungry.  Fuck.

OK, I can pee in this goddess damned bucket.  It's not far away, this is a tiny ass room.  OK, bucket, I touch my cock like men do when we pee, we have to hold our cocks, it's all about the aim, right, not about the touching, about the aim.  But I'm also touching my cock.

And I don't remember touching my cock before.  And it feels good.  Touching my cock.  As I'm peeing into this plastic bucket in the corner.

Can I touch my cock some more?  Yum.  I'm done peeing but I'm not done touching my cock.  This feels good.  Fuck these people for IMPRISONING ME and possibly stealing my memories, but I can touch my fucking cock.

Mmm.  I think it might feel better if, I, yeah spit on my cock.  Yeah.  Feels good, and my cock is growing, it's growing bigger, and hardening, so ... accessing ... my encyclopaedic knowledge-without-memory ... yeah, I'm masturbating, I'm getting an erection, and it feels fucking good,

I lay back down on the mattress, playing with my saliva-lubed cock,

"Hey, Marco,"

WTF?

"Marco,"

I'm hearing a voice from the ceiling.  A male voice, heavy, deep, natural not amplified, like he's looking down at me from the ceiling.

"Marco, stop masturbating."

WTF?

I'd just discovered this great sensation, touching my cock, spitting on my cock, it was driving me crazy,

"Marco, stop masturbating!"

"Fuck you!"

And then a sharp electric pain in my testicles, OK, I have testicles, like every other male, but OUCH, and I'm doubling over, falling off the mattress, five inches down to the concrete floor, rolling over, OUCH, OUCH,

Of course I've stopped masturbating, I'm in fucking pain!

"Good boy," he said.

"Boy, you were doing well until you started playing with your cock," he said.

"Who the fuck are you, and why am I here?" came harsh words writhing from my writhing body, although the pain was subsiding.

"Are you afraid, yet?" he asked.

And then the door opened.  Both visible and infrareds, first an outline of the door, then opening wider, and reflecting off surfaces around me, reflecting off my naked body,

"Hi, Marco.  I'm Tate.  I'm here to help you."
m_d_h: (Default)
It is always disorienting for the lights to switch on after spending a long time in the dark, especially if it's been so dark that your eyes have completely adapted to it.  It can even feel painful, "blink, blink," so you instinctively close or cover your eyes while they adjust to the light.

But turning on an infrared vision that I didn't know I had ... or didn't remember I had ... turning on my eyes ... is different from turning on the lights.  The infrared light was already there.  Now I'm seeing it!

Infrared is not one color.  It's not even a small band of color.  People use the word "infrared" as though it is the single invisible color on the other side of red.  Or would be, if they could see it.  It's got "red" in the word, so people think infrared is sort of MORE red, or DARKER red, or BLURRY red, or GLOWING red.  Or the color that would logically be next to red on the spectrum if the color spectrum were a color wheel instead -- Red Violet.

What about the night-vision goggles that people are familiar with from TV or movies?  Those portray infrared as monochromatic shades of green, although night-vision goggles pick up all shades of light, not just infrared, and magnify them ... monochromatically.

(How do I know all this stuff about colors?)

As my infrared vision flicked on, I could see myself and my surroundings in as many infrared colors as the rest of you see all the time in your "visual" range.  But these were all different colors!  Completely different colors, colors I've never seen before, or don't remember seeing before ... which feels like the same thing right now (I'll stop saying this).  None of these colors will ever be found in your Crayola Box of 64.  They are real colors, but human eyes never evolved to see them, because seeing them provided no survival advantage over people who couldn't see them.

No.  Seeing infrared colors must have been a survival disadvantage, or we would've evolved to see them.  Infrared colors require more amplification than visible colors, require bigger lenses, more internal energy to resolve them ... 

These cannot be human eyes.  But the rest of me looks human to me, except for the strange colors.  I cannot see my eyes, there are no mirrors in the room.

-----

A long-winded explanation for my "Wow" upon turning on my infrared vision.  Why had it been turned off?  Why did I wake in a dark room with only my "visible spectrum" vision turned on?

I don't know!  But now the room is perfectly visible to me, because there's an infrared-spectrum light bulb in the ceiling I cannot reach, and it is on.

And printed on the door -- now clearly a door -- a door with no handles or keyholes or hinges on my side of the door -- printed on the door it says, "Why aren't you afraid?"

-----

There's no other printing of any kind in the room.

"Why aren't you afraid?"

I am getting hungry, but, yeah, I'm not afraid.  Why does the door know this?
m_d_h: (Default)
There's a lot missing.  There has to be.  My situation and my knowledge regarding my situation do not mesh, there's no connection between now and a specific past.  No context.

I've explored this completely dark room, found no window, nothing like a light switch.  Nothing responds to voice commands, or I don't know the correct commands.  The mattress upon which I woke a while ago rests on the floor, with no bed frame.  There's a plastic bucket in one of the four corners of the room, which i'm guessing is for temporary storage of my waste products ... I have a mild need to piss but haven't done it yet, I know I'm not used to pissing in buckets.  I know that toilets exist and how to use them.

There's nothing else in the room, and the room isn't much bigger than needed to fit the mattress, the bucket, and me.  I cannot reach the ceiling, the walls are far enough apart that I can stretch out completely, but there's not enough room to walk around.

I think I figured out where the door is, because there's a sealed inset the size of a door, but there's no handle, no hinges on this side of it, a hard rubber seal keeps out light and probably muffles sound, because I can't hear any sounds I'm not producing myself.  There's probably an air outlet in the ceiling, I hope, I can't feel one in the wall or floor..  I presume there's a light source up there, perhaps a camera, but now I'm speculating.

I don't remember how I got here, or why I'm here, and although I do not remember any dreams, I also do not have a contiguous memory or understanding of where I was before I fell "asleep".  I have a sense of unconscious time seeping backward without limitation, an expanse of nothingness, as though I've been asleep for days or weeks -- or months?  Is it possible to feel my own past in this way?  As a tangible yet empty expanse?

So after figuring out what I could about my enclosure, I examined my body.  Completely naked, male anatomy.  Short or closely trimmed (?) hair everywhere that a male body should have hair.  Trimmed finger and toe nails.  Not a lot of body fat, not a lot of muscle, but not anorexic.  Skin doesn't feel either smooth as a baby or wrinkled as an elder, but why don't I know how old I am?  I'm mildly hungry and thirsty -- hunger and thirst levels that don't match the sense I've been asleep for days or longer.  Same for my bladder -- not full enough to think I slept through even one night.

OK, I'm becoming more curious about my amnesia.  I know a language, I've been thinking using words that I know are English.  I have the concepts necessary to investigate and label my surroundings and my bodily characteristics, my bodily sensations.  So I've got a dictionary of words and an encyclopedia of concepts.  But beyond that there's a muffled and obscured distance between my here & now and my past.

I know neither name, nor date of birth (nor today's date or year), nor Social Security number, yet I feel I should know these things, that it would be normal for me to know these things.  It's a type of amnesia where I know of the sorts of things I should know, yet do not know these things.  Where was I born, who are my parents, where did I go to school, who are my friends?  I should know these things, but I do not.  How do I know I should know these things?  I'd guess this is the 21st Century, unless I've recently experienced time travel, so I have general concepts of human history and my basic orientation within this history.

That's the weird part.  Having a structure of knowledge that must have come from somewhere, but I do not know from where.  Having a body that must have come from somewhere.  Understanding that I've been imprisoned -- kidnapped -- incarcerated -- but having no memory of this happening or clue as to why.  I understand that this is not normal.  I should have family, friends, an occupation, a bank account, a gym membership.  I should.  I feel like I most likely do have these things.

I'm aware of the concept of amnesia, even the idea there are different kinds of amnesia, because there are different kinds of memory, such as short-term and long-term.  Wait ... I have a memory of my mother having temporary amnesia once, and I had to take her to the emergency room.  OK, I did have a mother.  Or do.  Is she alive?  What is her name?  I only have this one image of her right now.

And now I remember having amnesia before myself.  After I was in an accident.  I'd been riding a bicycle to my friend's house, and was hit by a car, and woke up in the emergency room with temporary amnesia.  But that was different from now.  I'd been knocked unconscious by a bodily trauma, and coming out of that trauma was very different from waking up here.  I didn't know my own name for a while, though.  An attenuated return to consciousness from unconsciousness, as various parts of my brain took time to spin back up.

Another time I had a sort of temporary amnesia, I'd been out clubbing with friends, took a lot of party drugs, and came to on my bathroom floor, also in the dark like now, with a striking lack of knowledge of how I'd gotten there or for how long I'd spent on the hard tile floor.  But then I found the light switch, and my two friends were in my bed, so the lack of context didn't last long.

I'm currently feeling no sense of physical trauma, no hangover.  My lack of context is static, with no improvement as I stand here.  A lot of memories I should have are just missing, but now I've found a few memories from what feels like decades ago that lack much detail.  Memories about amnesia, because I'm thinking about the amnesia I must have.

Weird, an amnesia that wipes out memories of everything except some prior experiences with amnesia.  As though whatever caused this amnesia had a blind spot with respect to amnesia itself.  Or maybe my missing memories will eventually return as I find the correct stimuli for them.  Think about dogs and I'll remember my dog?  Er ... no ... maybe I don't have one?  Never had one?  Or maybe she's outside that door, waiting for me to remember how to open the door.  Everybody's just waiting for me to remember how to open the door.  That makes no sense.  Now I'm imagining family and friends and pets I never had.

I'm wearing out (what's left of) my brain with all this -- as though trying to remember memories that simply aren't there causes a form of mental exhaustion.  As though there's an energy cost to remembering a memory, but trying to remember a missing memory drains the battery.  Or floods the engine.  But I know a brain is neither a battery nor an engine.  I'm engaging in arbitrary metaphor.

I don't think I was a neurologist.  I don't know enough about how my brain is supposed to work to figure out what's not working.  But I seem to have a high verbal IQ.  Maybe later I can try doing some math.

OK, lie down.  Take some breaths.  Try to relax.  Not in any immediate danger.  It's possible I've been thrown in here to dehydrate and starve, but I have no evidence of this yet.  I wonder whether they're watching me on an infrared camera.

Wait ... infrared vision ... I have infrared vision.  I'd forgotten.  I just have to turn it on.  How do I have infrared vision?  Humans don't have infrared vision!

Oh, wow ...
m_d_h: (Default)
I awake!

and my mind is so clear, so clean, no dream fragments, but,

this room is completely dark

and this isn't my bed

where am I?

wait, WHO am I?

slow down ... slow down ... no need for fight or flight ...

stop the adrenaline --> I can stop the adrenaline, wow, um ...

comfortable mattress, but not my own, but,

let's get up, feel around, where are we,

who are we

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