still counting ... it's not over ...

None of the major news services gives Trump more than 213 Electoral Votes as I wake.  They disagree on whether Biden has 227, or 238, or 225, or 224 ... but all agree not enough for Biden to win yet.  The main differences are whether they've called Arizona or Maine for Biden -- but AP has called Arizona and Maine for Biden and I trust AP.  So -- I'm going with Biden 238 / Trump 213 as I wake.  Biden is in the lead, but hasn't crossed the finish line yet.

So far, Biden has taken one state from Trump's 2016 stable: Arizona.  But he needs more than Arizona to win.

Betting markets say it's 2/3 Trump, with Trump winning those same three Upper Midwest states that he won last time (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), but the betting markets have been leaning pro-Trump all along as compared to either the polling average or the expert predictions.  Trump's not even leading in Wisconsin right now, so if you're expecting Trump to win Wisconsin your bias is showing.

If Trump holds onto his lead in each of the uncalled states in which he's currently ahead -- Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, then he wins the Electoral College.  But ...

But before Election Day, all the experts predicted Trump would be ahead when the Election Day results were counted on Election Night, because not all of the mail-in ballots would be counted yet.

In Georgia & Michigan, they're still counting the mail-in ballots, which are expected to tilt 2/3 Biden.

In Pennsylvania, they're still counting the mail-in ballots, which are expected to tilt 2/3 Biden, and these ballots can still arrive until Friday.

In North Carolina, they're still counting the mail-in ballots, which are expected to tilt 2/3 Biden, and these ballots can still arrive until next week Thursday.

Alaska is only 3 Electoral Votes and isn't expected to be the tipping point state, but they won't even start counting their mail-in ballots until next week.  So forget about watching Alaska.

In Nevada & Wisconsin, Biden currently leads and counting the rest of the mail-in ballots will probably increase his lead.

So we're in the scenario that many feared and many expected -- we need to wait until all the mail-in ballots are counted, and until they are all counted President Trump looks like he's winning -- and as they are counted Trump's lead will shrink.

What we see this morning is probably Trump's high water mark for 2020 -- the needle will move toward Biden from here, with everybody wondering will it move enough?

Biden's got 238, needs 270.  Add Wisconsin and Nevada where he's already in the lead and will probably keep his lead, then he's up to 254.

He needs only one of the following states and Biden wins: Georgia (270), Michigan (270), or Pennsylvania (274).

If he gets only North Carolina, we get an Electoral College tie (269) and nobody wants that.  So forget about watching North Carolina.

If Biden pulls into the lead in either Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania as the mail-in ballots are counted, then he's probably going to win.  Trump needs to keep all three states to avoid a Biden win.

The popular vote doesn't matter, but Biden is already a couple million votes ahead and that lead will only increase from here.  Trump only wins via a second Electoral College upset.  If the US were a real democracy, we'd call it for Biden now.  But thanks to your 18th Century Constitution, Trump still has a chance of a second term.

much shorter version

Watch Michigan -- if Biden pulls into the lead in Michigan he's winning the Electoral College.

And the betting markets have flipped again, now giving Biden a 69% chance to win.  That's more like it.

I'm calling it, LOL

Biden wins the Electoral College!  He's ahead in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, that's all he needs for 270.

The betting markets now agree with me, and also throw in Pennsylvania for 290.  Georgia is still close, if Biden pulls ahead in Georgia then 306/232, but he doesn't need Georgia to win.

It's all over but for the counting, LOL.  But even if Trump gets some sort of Supreme Court ruling to stop the counting in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, he's still going to lose :-)

the bad news, though

It is not looking like a Democratic Senate.  A Biden Presidency will be severely hobbled by a Republican Senate.  He won't be able to appoint anybody to anything unless Mitch McConnell agrees.  No judges, no cabinet, no Federal Reserve Board members.  Over 1,000 executive branch positions require Senate confirmation.  Biden won't be able to increase taxes, period.  Every spending plan will need to be thoroughly bipartisan.

Bipartisan cooperation or two years of gridlock?  I'm betting on the latter.

Biden 248 / Trump 214

Biden is moving toward the official finish line a bit faster than Trump, AP called Wisconsin for Biden at 2:36pm.  That's two states Biden has taken from Trump's 2016 stable.  If AP calls Michigan and one more state for Biden, then they will call the Presidency for Biden.

Hang in there, peeps!

when will this really be over

It is probable that AP will call Michigan for Biden by tomorrow morning.  It is possible -- flip a coin possible -- that AP will call Georgia for Biden by tomorrow morning.

If Biden wins the coin toss in Georgia, then this is over, we're done.

If Trump wins the coin toss in Georgia, then it will probably be days until AP calls Nevada, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina.  That's because these three states allow late arrival ballots -- ballots are literally still arriving in the mail tomorrow, and Friday -- and AP is not going to call these states while ballots are still arriving unless they can be sure those late arrivals can't possibly change the outcome.

So, either you wake up tomorrow and Biden has Georgia and he won, or you'll be waiting for days for another state to be called.

Nevertheless, Biden will win.  Biden is in the lead in enough states for 270 Electoral Votes, and the balance of the remaining ballots to be counted will favor Biden.  That's why I called the race earlier today when Biden pulled ahead in Michigan -- he was ahead in enough states to win, so he will win.

And Trump can't stop Biden by getting any court to stop counting the votes, because Biden is already ahead.  Stop counting, Biden wins.  Keep counting, Biden wins.  Biden will win.  But it may yet take several days before the race is called by the news organizations, because the ballots are still arriving in the mail.

more comment (re: Republicans and the economy)

This bit about Republicans being better for the economy --

The last five recessions, including the one we're experiencing right now, all began during Republican administrations!

There has not been a Democratic recession since 1980! That was six recessions ago.

I'm not making this up, these are the official recession start dates:

https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions

Wait, it's even worse, keep going back in time, 10 of the past 11 recessions began during Republican administrations!

Ugh, "better for the economy" my ass.  Better for rich people, they mean.

Marco "meets" Tate

Testicles pain takes a while to completely disappear, I'm learning, a steadily throbbing reminder of how much worse mine felt about a minute ago.  I do not want to feel that much pain again.  I am certain I wouldn't be able to move, much less walk or run or escape.  And I don't know how much higher they can turn the dial on that.

These guys have me by the balls!  I don't know how they did that, some sort of implant inside my scrotum?  Activated by wireless signal?  How recent was the surgery, I hadn't felt anything strange anywhere on my body, not around my scrotum or anywhere.  Or some sort of pain gun operating from a distance?

But I'm looking at "Tate", this handsome young man who opened my cell door.  From what little I've observed of my own body so far, Tate is definitely younger than I am, and in better physical shape, but I'm not sure how far past puberty he is, although he's naked like me, with a grown-up's male equipment.  What's up with the nudity around here?  Not a regular state prison, for sure.

I'm still on the floor in a semi-fetal curl, except that I moved around from where I'd face-planted, enough to look up at Tate in the doorway, standing astride a flood of visible and infrared light.

"Marco, I'm so sorry about all this.  I'm sure you have a lot of questions.  May I come in?"

He's asking me permission?  Hah!  So he's the good cop, that dude above the ceiling with the ball-pain gun is the bad cop.

"I'm not interested in playing good cop / bad cop with you two.  Bring me my clothes and ID and let me go."

Tate remained in the doorway, I'd say "looking down at me" but I don't think he can see, I think he's blind, his eyes aren't acting like I'd expect normal seeing eyes to act.

"I understand.  We aren't cops.  I'd say we're more like temporary custodians, although I just work here, Chris is the CEO."

At this, the voice in the ceiling said, "Hi, Marco, sorry for the shock.  It was necessary."

"Fuck you!" I yelled at the ceiling.  "How can shocking my balls be 'necessary'?"

Tate oriented himself toward me, "Because we're trying to save your memories."

These guys probably deleted my memories!  "Bullshit!" I yelled at Tate.  Though less harshly, he's just a kid.  Maybe I should try to get on his good side.

Tate considered something, then said, "Good cop / bad cop routines are for interrogation, right?  I'm not here to interrogate you.  I'm here to help you.  May I come in?"

Deep sigh.  I sat up, balls throbbing less, but still reminding me.  "Sure, what the hell, 'come in'.  Have a seat, make yourself at home, whatever."



As Tate entered "my" room the infrareds light came back on.  He's really beautiful, even more so with the infrareds bathing his skin and hair.  I felt like I was on acid looking at him in this complex light, with these eyes.

Tate did sit down next to me on the floor.  Oh, he was holding something in his hand, it looked like medical equipment of some sort.  I touched it.

"This?  It's for injecting sedatives.  I'm often helping people to calm down in this job.  Would you like some help calming down?"

No way, I thought.  "Absolutely not.  You can throw that in the piss bucket."

Tate laughed, "OK," and tossed it in the general direction of the corner, hitting the outside of the bucket, "sounds like I missed, I haven't practiced tossing these things into piss buckets before."

A charming kid, which I suppose is his job, he's still the "good cop" here, definitely, despite his demurral.

"Tate, just bring me my clothes and ID and let me go.  Please."

Tate sighed.  "Do you want your memories back or not?  Do you consent to never getting your memories back?"

"Tate, just give me my memories back!  What's going on here?!?  Just let me go!"

Tate reached out to hold my hand, I think.  Then he said, "Marco, this is your name, we know that, Marco, why don't you give me your hand, let's sit here and talk for a while."

Um ... OK ... I give him my hand.  He's got soft warm hands.

"Marco," Tate continued, "maybe you remember what a 'booby trap' is, like if you open a door a bucket of paint falls on you, or a bomb explodes."

"Yes," I told him, "I know what a booby trap is.  Sort of like when I tried to masturbate and you guys shocked my balls.  That was one helluva booby trap."

"Marco, that wasn't the booby trap, that was Chris acting quickly to stop you from setting off the booby trap.  I'm not sure how else we could've stopped you, you were about to orgasm."

Tate was gently, lightly, barely squeezing my hand in his.  He's really a beautiful young man, he could be a model.  He has extraordinary nipples.  I found myself becoming aroused, my cock filling up a bit.  And, yeah, thinking about the orgasm I was on my way to having ... and my balls aren't throbbing so much now.

"You mean, my having an orgasm would set off a booby trap?  This sounds ridiculous.  This entire setup is ridiculous."

Tate's expression became serious, along with his tone.  "Marco, please believe me, if you have an orgasm, you'll never get your memories back.  That's the booby trap.  Well, part of the booby trap.  Your memories are trapped, sort of wrapped inside a memory bomb.  And to get your memories back, we have to avoid certain triggers, and set off other kinds of triggers."

WTF.

"OK ... if I believe what you are saying about my memories being booby trapped, and that an orgasm would set off the booby trap ... who the hell would do such a thing?  And how do you know this?"

"Marco, you did this to yourself."

WTF.

I let go of Tate's hand.  "Tate, of course this sounds fantastic and ridiculous.  But why ... why keep me in the dark, I mean, literally, and then why turn off the infrareds after I figure out how to see them, and what's up with the phrase on the door?  And why am I naked and in a prison cell?  I mean, why am I not waking up in a sun-filled hospital bed with my spouse and children nearby, and a bouquet of balloons, and bland hospital food?"

Tate was quiet for a bit.  I had asked him a lot of questions all at once.  Then he replied, "Well, I don't know what phrase is on the door, but this isn't a prison cell, you've been here several times and if you really wanted to leave we wouldn't keep you.  You're sort of a client, sort of a friend, sort of a colleague, sort of a ... play partner.  I suppose Chris was just playing with you, to see how you'd respond upon waking up here.  But then you sped things up by masturbating."

"I sped things up?"  This was so impossible, it was confusing me.

"This," Tate waved his hands around, "is what you wanted.  You wanted to hide away and booby trap your memories, you wanted to wake up like this here, you wanted Chris to play around with you and frighten you a bit, and then you wanted me to come in and explain things, to calm you down.  This is all what you wanted to happen.  But we didn't expect you to start masturbating out of the blue like that."

WTF.

It sounds like some terribly expensive deepshit head game for billionaire BDSM players.

"Tate, am I a billionaire?"

"Yes, I think so.  I don't usually ask about the money stuff.  I'm just a servant, really.  You've been a generous tipper in the past."

"Do you have any proof of all this stuff?"  Now I think I've been captured and wiped to play a role in their twisted dungeon game.  And I'm starting to worry they're going to kill me.

"That's kind of tricky.  If you want your memories back, there's kind of a set of rules, kind of a scenario, stuff we can and cannot tell you.  That's how you designed this.  I think going down the road of giving you proof means you'll never get your real memories back, you'd just have to relearn who you are the hard way.  Which was a possible outcome you expected -- you expected this might be too difficult a game for you and that you'd just walk away.  And part of you, maybe hoped you'd just walk away.  I'm not sure you're happy with your memories."

Tate stopped, looked thoughtful for a moment, and then said, "Personally, I think this is what you wanted: to fry your past forever while having some hot sex in our dungeon.  But we figured we had an obligation to warn you first.  And we didn't think you'd just start masturbating right away before we had a chance to talk."