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This feels like the longest US Presidential Election ever. All those long months of Democrats campaigning against each other during 2019 -- the first debate was in June 2019, then the ups and downs of the Democratic primary season that ended more abruptly than expected with a Biden win in April, although voting continued for more than four months after due to Pandemic delays.
I ended up voting for Warren in June, although by then nobody cared about Maryland, and Biden easily carried the state with 84%.
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Although many of us were surprised by Trump's win in 2016, the final polls were not that far off. FiveThirtyEight's final poll aggregation had Hillary 3.6% ahead of Donald, and she was 2.1% ahead in the final popular vote count -- well within the normal margin of error for political polls. The surprise was not in the popular vote, but in the Electoral College, where Trump unexpectedly won several states: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.
Afterward, pollsters realized that Trump carried a demographic they had not weighted properly: non-college whites. But the polls weren't that far off.
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Three weeks out this time, the polls show Biden with a 10-point lead nationally, and he leads in several of the states Trump won in 2016. Even if the polls are off by 1.5% like they were four years ago, even the Electoral College won't save Trump from defeat.
And this time, pollsters say they're properly weighting non-college whites.
At this point, the ways Trump can pull out a victory are limited:
(1) Some sort of news or event happens that sours voters on the Biden/Harris ticket -- although millions of voters have already cast their ballots, so it would have to be big news, and happen soon. Like Biden catches COVID-19 and dies or becomes disabled, or Biden is indicted for rape, something huge like that.
(2) Trump cheats by somehow stopping the count of mail-in ballots in several states. This would require the assistance of dozens of state and federal judges, which I think is unlikely.
(3) The Pandemic affects voter turnout in a huge and unprecedented way, fucking up all the pollsters' likely voter models -- basically, Democrats would have to be much more scared of voting than Republicans (even via mail or early voting), ruining their chance to dump Trump.
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I've already voted.
As Trump beat everybody's expectations four years ago, it is difficult to rule out another Trump win. But the situation is different from four years ago. It will take something more than a 1.5% polling miss this time.
I ended up voting for Warren in June, although by then nobody cared about Maryland, and Biden easily carried the state with 84%.
-----
Although many of us were surprised by Trump's win in 2016, the final polls were not that far off. FiveThirtyEight's final poll aggregation had Hillary 3.6% ahead of Donald, and she was 2.1% ahead in the final popular vote count -- well within the normal margin of error for political polls. The surprise was not in the popular vote, but in the Electoral College, where Trump unexpectedly won several states: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.
Afterward, pollsters realized that Trump carried a demographic they had not weighted properly: non-college whites. But the polls weren't that far off.
-----
Three weeks out this time, the polls show Biden with a 10-point lead nationally, and he leads in several of the states Trump won in 2016. Even if the polls are off by 1.5% like they were four years ago, even the Electoral College won't save Trump from defeat.
And this time, pollsters say they're properly weighting non-college whites.
At this point, the ways Trump can pull out a victory are limited:
(1) Some sort of news or event happens that sours voters on the Biden/Harris ticket -- although millions of voters have already cast their ballots, so it would have to be big news, and happen soon. Like Biden catches COVID-19 and dies or becomes disabled, or Biden is indicted for rape, something huge like that.
(2) Trump cheats by somehow stopping the count of mail-in ballots in several states. This would require the assistance of dozens of state and federal judges, which I think is unlikely.
(3) The Pandemic affects voter turnout in a huge and unprecedented way, fucking up all the pollsters' likely voter models -- basically, Democrats would have to be much more scared of voting than Republicans (even via mail or early voting), ruining their chance to dump Trump.
-----
I've already voted.
As Trump beat everybody's expectations four years ago, it is difficult to rule out another Trump win. But the situation is different from four years ago. It will take something more than a 1.5% polling miss this time.