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I'm a hyperrational investor, which has severely limited my returns during the serial stock market bubbles of my adult professional life. I've made solid returns, via conservative investing, which means I won't lose as much during the crashes, but, I could've made more money LOL,
But that gets boring, I have enough money, enough to make a sort of game toward the end of my life in learning how to give it away,
so why would my investing style hit for the fence? I invest for security, and I feel as financially secure as a person can be in a world of historical turmoil, but it could all change, I could've been even more conservative, but I've put my chips down ... we'll see what I get after the wheel of life flips into retirement,
But that gets boring, I have enough money, enough to make a sort of game toward the end of my life in learning how to give it away,
so why would my investing style hit for the fence? I invest for security, and I feel as financially secure as a person can be in a world of historical turmoil, but it could all change, I could've been even more conservative, but I've put my chips down ... we'll see what I get after the wheel of life flips into retirement,
I've long been fascinated by what I call "fallen cities" -- cities that have experienced large decreases in population. Even better if that decrease in population is still ongoing. Why do people abandon certain cities, and what happens to these cities as people abandon them? Sometimes cities enter a kind of death spiral, in which the remaining residents can no longer adequately support their local government, which leads to rising crime & poverty and collapsing social services, which drives away more of the remaining residents. What's left -- usually a "Gold Coast" slice of rich people living along a fashionable waterfront, surrounded by decaying and ungovernable ex-neighborhoods with rotting public schools.
Some of the classic fallen cities in the US include: Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis -- all their populations falling by more than half since 1950, all falling from more than half a million residents. Why did so many people leave?
Baltimore's population also peaked in 1950 and has been falling every decade since, down 38% over 70 years. It hasn't fallen quite as hard as Detroit, which is down 65% and lost over a million people (and is still falling!).
In a fallen city you can usually find a nice-looking house for less than half the US median price, so in this age of telework, you'd think more people would be moving into fallen cities. When I see my own income fall as I enter retirement, I'll be tempted to buy a condo in a fallen city, but it won't be a good "investment", but I won't be saving for the future anyway, I'll be living off my savings by then.
Well, I might be focusing more on Baltimore over the next few years, maybe I'll even swap the DC condo for a Baltimore condo in anticipation of retiring in Baltimore. Maybe for my next vacation I'll barely travel at all -- just stay up in Baltimore for a long weekend and get to know it a little better. I've run the Baltimore half marathon and the Baltimore marathon in the past, good ways to see the city. I've spent nights in Baltimore, seen concerts there, gone dancing there, had sex there, but I haven't really gotten to know Baltimore like I should -- it takes about as long to drive to downtown Baltimore as to my office in downtown DC -- but I've spent zillions more nights in DC than in Baltimore.
I've had this fallen city right under my nose for 30 years ...
Some of the classic fallen cities in the US include: Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis -- all their populations falling by more than half since 1950, all falling from more than half a million residents. Why did so many people leave?
Baltimore's population also peaked in 1950 and has been falling every decade since, down 38% over 70 years. It hasn't fallen quite as hard as Detroit, which is down 65% and lost over a million people (and is still falling!).
In a fallen city you can usually find a nice-looking house for less than half the US median price, so in this age of telework, you'd think more people would be moving into fallen cities. When I see my own income fall as I enter retirement, I'll be tempted to buy a condo in a fallen city, but it won't be a good "investment", but I won't be saving for the future anyway, I'll be living off my savings by then.
Well, I might be focusing more on Baltimore over the next few years, maybe I'll even swap the DC condo for a Baltimore condo in anticipation of retiring in Baltimore. Maybe for my next vacation I'll barely travel at all -- just stay up in Baltimore for a long weekend and get to know it a little better. I've run the Baltimore half marathon and the Baltimore marathon in the past, good ways to see the city. I've spent nights in Baltimore, seen concerts there, gone dancing there, had sex there, but I haven't really gotten to know Baltimore like I should -- it takes about as long to drive to downtown Baltimore as to my office in downtown DC -- but I've spent zillions more nights in DC than in Baltimore.
I've had this fallen city right under my nose for 30 years ...
I've thought stocks were overvalued since the mid 1990s, LOL. That doesn't mean I've avoided stocks entirely, but I've been a relatively conservative investor with my retirement funds for decades, compared to what my time horizon has been. When I was younger, I'd stick between 40-60% stocks. With retirement approaching, I'm currently at 23% stocks.
But there's overvalued, and there's OVERVALUED, and lately I've been collecting more and more ways of measuring the present overvaluation. In some ways, stocks are more highly valued now in the US than ever before.
With respect to earnings, it doesn't look as bad, because for the past decade corporate earnings have grabbed a larger chunk of GDP than ever before. Both Obama and Trump were kind to after-tax corporate earnings.
But with respect to broader economic measures, such as corporate revenues or GDP, stocks have never been so highly valued as they are right now. With respect to GDP, the market capitalization of public company stocks is now twice as high as it was during the late 1990s bubble.
One rational market observer wrote that according to his calculations, there is no human time horizon long enough to compensate for the risk of buying stocks at present valuations. In other words, no matter how young you are, if you buy stocks now and hold them until you die, you are likely to lose money.
We used to tell younger investors that if they had a time horizon of 30 years, they could ride out the coming bear markets and eventually profit by the time they retired. Now you'd need a time horizon of 70 years to be reasonably certain of riding out the coming bear markets.
But the alternative in my TSP account would be to put all my chips on the US Dollar, and I fear that's a losing bet also, with little upside and enormous downside potential. Right now the US Dollar is riding high, participating in 80+% of all world currency trades. But we have competitor currencies, we aren't the world's only choice for storing value.
I used to think, rather automatically, that in the event of a bear market I'd add stocks to my retirement account. I did that about a year ago during the brief but violent Pandemic Bear Market of 2020. I added a modest amount of stocks, but when prices quickly rebounded I sold back down to my current defensive posture. Now, I'm concerned that stocks are so overvalued that even a garden variety bear market (down 20%) would not correct prices. Maybe stocks would have to fall 75% to become fairly priced again, in historical terms.
We've become accustomed to stocks increasing in value by 10%/year, even though the economy is only growing by 2%/year with 2% inflation. That extra 6%/year has resulted from bidding up the value of stocks well beyond their fundamentals. It's been a great thing for those who own stocks, but the math makes no sense to me anymore. The global economy has come to resemble a gigantic Ponzi scheme, supported by the mass pursuit of ever-more imaginary levels of wealth. I'm not sure there is such a thing as rational investing anymore. The financial markets have uncoupled from reality.
I'm only continuing to invest because of the 100% matching --> I put away 5% and my employer matches with another 5%. It's free money, so long as I sock it away until I turn 59 1/2. But other than choosing the most conservative of the "LifeCycle" funds I really don't know what to advise a retirement investor today. You're likely to lose money no matter what. If your employer isn't matching, I'd say forget about retirement for now, enjoy your money while you have it. Spend it on stuff you and your family will enjoy. Create memories, not nest eggs. Because a fox is going to eat your nest eggs before you reach retirement, you can be fairly certain of that.
But there's overvalued, and there's OVERVALUED, and lately I've been collecting more and more ways of measuring the present overvaluation. In some ways, stocks are more highly valued now in the US than ever before.
With respect to earnings, it doesn't look as bad, because for the past decade corporate earnings have grabbed a larger chunk of GDP than ever before. Both Obama and Trump were kind to after-tax corporate earnings.
But with respect to broader economic measures, such as corporate revenues or GDP, stocks have never been so highly valued as they are right now. With respect to GDP, the market capitalization of public company stocks is now twice as high as it was during the late 1990s bubble.
One rational market observer wrote that according to his calculations, there is no human time horizon long enough to compensate for the risk of buying stocks at present valuations. In other words, no matter how young you are, if you buy stocks now and hold them until you die, you are likely to lose money.
We used to tell younger investors that if they had a time horizon of 30 years, they could ride out the coming bear markets and eventually profit by the time they retired. Now you'd need a time horizon of 70 years to be reasonably certain of riding out the coming bear markets.
But the alternative in my TSP account would be to put all my chips on the US Dollar, and I fear that's a losing bet also, with little upside and enormous downside potential. Right now the US Dollar is riding high, participating in 80+% of all world currency trades. But we have competitor currencies, we aren't the world's only choice for storing value.
I used to think, rather automatically, that in the event of a bear market I'd add stocks to my retirement account. I did that about a year ago during the brief but violent Pandemic Bear Market of 2020. I added a modest amount of stocks, but when prices quickly rebounded I sold back down to my current defensive posture. Now, I'm concerned that stocks are so overvalued that even a garden variety bear market (down 20%) would not correct prices. Maybe stocks would have to fall 75% to become fairly priced again, in historical terms.
We've become accustomed to stocks increasing in value by 10%/year, even though the economy is only growing by 2%/year with 2% inflation. That extra 6%/year has resulted from bidding up the value of stocks well beyond their fundamentals. It's been a great thing for those who own stocks, but the math makes no sense to me anymore. The global economy has come to resemble a gigantic Ponzi scheme, supported by the mass pursuit of ever-more imaginary levels of wealth. I'm not sure there is such a thing as rational investing anymore. The financial markets have uncoupled from reality.
I'm only continuing to invest because of the 100% matching --> I put away 5% and my employer matches with another 5%. It's free money, so long as I sock it away until I turn 59 1/2. But other than choosing the most conservative of the "LifeCycle" funds I really don't know what to advise a retirement investor today. You're likely to lose money no matter what. If your employer isn't matching, I'd say forget about retirement for now, enjoy your money while you have it. Spend it on stuff you and your family will enjoy. Create memories, not nest eggs. Because a fox is going to eat your nest eggs before you reach retirement, you can be fairly certain of that.
Today is my 20th Anniversary with this same employer -- even the same division of this employer. I've held 6 positions during these 20 years, and I expect this one to be my last. I'm flatly not interested in another promotion or moving to a different division. Let me do this for 6 years, 6 months, and 17 days more, and then I'll retire and do something else with my "work" hours.
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I'm back to my wacky work-from-home sleep schedule. Not really a schedule, my sleep happens at all hours or not at all. I don't get anxious about it -- if I'm not sleepy I'm not sleepy. If I'm sleepy, I take a nap if I can. It's low stress. I've got a 9:45am meeting this morning that I need to prepare for, so I'll be getting up soon anyway.
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Now that the OTC meds have worn off, I have some residual symptoms from the food poisoning, but it's more manageable/acceptable than it was Wednesday evening.
I may try some yoga today, either before or after I head downtown.
As for heading downtown ... I'm not sure what I'm going to do there for once, I may not be able to play with toys yet. It's been my weekend institution during Quarantine!
I need to stop at the Post Office on the way, I need to mail a couple of things that require nonstandard postage.
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The FMJ has shipped! I only know this because the last time I bought a device from this company I registered with Australia Post for tracking updates. This morning I received an email directly from Australia Post. I did not receive an email from the company, and when I check my account at their website it still claims my device is "in production".
Australia Post says 10-18 business days for a delivery to the US. I should remain in my custom metal cage until then. When the FMJ arrives I can trim pubes before putting it on and freezing the keys. I hope I like it!
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I keep hearing of more people getting their COVID shots. I'm envious. My boss and his wife got their shots even though they already had COVID. A gay couple much younger than I am both got their shots recently -- they apparently qualified in their state because they're HIV+. But here in Maryland my asthma gets me nada. I'll just keep hiding from the world as best I can. At some point supply will exceed demand.
I remember back when the 2009 H1N1 vaccine came out, I went to a mass vaccination site and waited in a super long line to snag my shot.
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I like the MIDI keyboard I have at the house so much better than the older one at the condo, I'm seriously thinking of buying a second one for the condo so I have the same model at each location. But the amount of time I'm spending using them doesn't seem to justify the expense ... it's like the board games I buy and never play, the books I buy and never read. I'll probably buy it, though. I like having the same stuff in both locations, to some extent. But I'll probably wait until the next time I actually use the keyboard at the condo -- prove to myself I'll use the darn thing, and feel the inferiority of the old one under my fingertips. I'm also wanting to have copies of my instruction books at both places, LOL.
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I'm back to my wacky work-from-home sleep schedule. Not really a schedule, my sleep happens at all hours or not at all. I don't get anxious about it -- if I'm not sleepy I'm not sleepy. If I'm sleepy, I take a nap if I can. It's low stress. I've got a 9:45am meeting this morning that I need to prepare for, so I'll be getting up soon anyway.
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Now that the OTC meds have worn off, I have some residual symptoms from the food poisoning, but it's more manageable/acceptable than it was Wednesday evening.
I may try some yoga today, either before or after I head downtown.
As for heading downtown ... I'm not sure what I'm going to do there for once, I may not be able to play with toys yet. It's been my weekend institution during Quarantine!
I need to stop at the Post Office on the way, I need to mail a couple of things that require nonstandard postage.
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The FMJ has shipped! I only know this because the last time I bought a device from this company I registered with Australia Post for tracking updates. This morning I received an email directly from Australia Post. I did not receive an email from the company, and when I check my account at their website it still claims my device is "in production".
Australia Post says 10-18 business days for a delivery to the US. I should remain in my custom metal cage until then. When the FMJ arrives I can trim pubes before putting it on and freezing the keys. I hope I like it!
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I keep hearing of more people getting their COVID shots. I'm envious. My boss and his wife got their shots even though they already had COVID. A gay couple much younger than I am both got their shots recently -- they apparently qualified in their state because they're HIV+. But here in Maryland my asthma gets me nada. I'll just keep hiding from the world as best I can. At some point supply will exceed demand.
I remember back when the 2009 H1N1 vaccine came out, I went to a mass vaccination site and waited in a super long line to snag my shot.
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I like the MIDI keyboard I have at the house so much better than the older one at the condo, I'm seriously thinking of buying a second one for the condo so I have the same model at each location. But the amount of time I'm spending using them doesn't seem to justify the expense ... it's like the board games I buy and never play, the books I buy and never read. I'll probably buy it, though. I like having the same stuff in both locations, to some extent. But I'll probably wait until the next time I actually use the keyboard at the condo -- prove to myself I'll use the darn thing, and feel the inferiority of the old one under my fingertips. I'm also wanting to have copies of my instruction books at both places, LOL.
I woke with plenty of time to do the Monday morning chores, and I'd done some of them ahead of time Sunday night. Cats were rounded up without incident, I was out of the house at 7:55am. T was in a good mood throughout. It is regularly the most stressful period of my life, whether that sounds silly to the rest of you or not. These biweekly Monday mornings.
Traffic to the condo was pretty darn busy, didn't feel like a city under Quarantine at all.
Upon arrival I did a 43-minute dance video, since then I've mostly been attending work meetings via Skype or Zoom, and I've got another work meeting in 15 minutes. Then I'll head back to the house to cook dinner.
I've had some time to get used to my amateur hair self-cut, and my OCD fingers have found a few irregularities that I've corrected with scissors. I think I'll do a better job next time, will probably be a bit more brave and take the top down to #7 and the sides down to #4, with some sort of attempt at tapering in between.
As I drove here this morning I was wondering -- if I were to move out of the house for whatever reason, say next summer, would I want to live at this condo? Probably the main issue would be whether I could downsize my personal property to fit -- abandoning the greater share of my board games and remaining books. There are no toys I have at the house that I don't also have at the condo. I'm not big on having lots of clothes or shoes, those would easily fit if K were to remove more of his stuff.
I know ideally I'd want a little more space, and perhaps a different location closer to running trails. But this condo is a known and beloved place with lots of fun memories and an emotional connection with K, and I feel utterly safe here.
Well, I don't have to decide that today. One important thing to keep in mind is that I can get inexpensive senior living housing once I'm 55, which is just 19 months away. So if the time frame is next summer anyway, I may as well wait until I'm 55 toward the end of the summer, and buy senior housing then. Yeah, next summer I'll be 5 years from retirement. Sounds so close when I put it that way.
Oh, I'm leaving the frozen keys here in the freezer ... won't be back here until at least Friday ... three-day weekend so I should get two nights to self again!
Traffic to the condo was pretty darn busy, didn't feel like a city under Quarantine at all.
Upon arrival I did a 43-minute dance video, since then I've mostly been attending work meetings via Skype or Zoom, and I've got another work meeting in 15 minutes. Then I'll head back to the house to cook dinner.
I've had some time to get used to my amateur hair self-cut, and my OCD fingers have found a few irregularities that I've corrected with scissors. I think I'll do a better job next time, will probably be a bit more brave and take the top down to #7 and the sides down to #4, with some sort of attempt at tapering in between.
As I drove here this morning I was wondering -- if I were to move out of the house for whatever reason, say next summer, would I want to live at this condo? Probably the main issue would be whether I could downsize my personal property to fit -- abandoning the greater share of my board games and remaining books. There are no toys I have at the house that I don't also have at the condo. I'm not big on having lots of clothes or shoes, those would easily fit if K were to remove more of his stuff.
I know ideally I'd want a little more space, and perhaps a different location closer to running trails. But this condo is a known and beloved place with lots of fun memories and an emotional connection with K, and I feel utterly safe here.
Well, I don't have to decide that today. One important thing to keep in mind is that I can get inexpensive senior living housing once I'm 55, which is just 19 months away. So if the time frame is next summer anyway, I may as well wait until I'm 55 toward the end of the summer, and buy senior housing then. Yeah, next summer I'll be 5 years from retirement. Sounds so close when I put it that way.
Oh, I'm leaving the frozen keys here in the freezer ... won't be back here until at least Friday ... three-day weekend so I should get two nights to self again!
50/50 can't last!
28 January 2021 20:19The longest period the US Senate has been divided 50/50 was less than five months. Although US Senate elections are generally held every two years, there's continued churn in between elections. Senators occasionally die, sometimes they abruptly resign for whatever reason. They may decide to run for a different office instead, or take a Cabinet position, or even switch parties. Then each state has its own rules for replacing its Senators, and in some cases that replacement could be from the other party.
Sitting here on the Left in the US, I hope the next Senate churn moves in our direction instead of back to the Republicans. We could move the center-of-gravity swing Senator from WV to MT, a very slight improvement ;-)
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Part of my retirement planning is my personal 30-year Green Communism path, also paying off all my non-mortgage debt, and eventually moving out of this house. But another part is doing what I've been telling everybody on the Left to do -- moving to a state where my vote isn't completely wasted. I think I've written in here before that I want to move to the swingiest state that has already legalized marijuana, because I might want to smoke occasionally in retirement and I'd like to do so legally. The only place I've ever bought marijuana legally in my entire life was Amsterdam, on a trip with K. Although marijuana is legal in DC, it isn't legal to buy it in DC. I haven't bought it illegally in DC either, not recently anyway. I think the last time I bought pot in the US was back around when 9/11 happened.
Michigan was the state, last time I checked. And then I picked out which city I want to live in, and then I even picked out which building I want to live in, heh. But this will probably change between now and 2027.
Of course, I might end up in a new or different relationship by then, which would require negotiations about possibly moving somewhere. Maybe I'm stuck in the DC area for life. Maybe my future partner wants to move to Portland like everybody else, heh.
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B's husband is back in town for the weekend (don't ask me why, I don't know), so I won't get the house to myself. T encouraged me to go to the condo this weekend. He said he'd take Dax to the vet on Saturday, so I might head downtown midday tomorrow, although I'd still have to work when I got there, I have an afternoon meeting. But I could get an earlier start on my fun if I drive there midday.
I thought about waiting until Saturday and going for one night, but we're probably getting significant snow on Sunday ... do I want to be driving back to the house in a snowstorm?
If I can get my weight lifting done tomorrow morning, and can drive downtown before my afternoon meeting, I'll probably head to the condo tomorrow. Then the snow forecast will help me to decide whether I stay one night or two. Also, checking in with T about how he's doing. We are still each other's primary social support during Quarantine and my life is easier when my presence helps him to avoid an emotional crash, just as my life is easier when his presence helps me in the same way.
I suspect that after we get our shots, we'll be spending a lot of time socializing with other people. And by this time next year, I should know whether I will want to stay in this house until I retire, or whether I will want to move out during summer 2022. And then would I live in the condo until I retire, or buy my own separate place? It will be weird when my life starts moving again, after this extremely introverted pause, after my beloved K moved away. Despite all the complaints I've had about T during this Quarantine, I'm still genuinely surprised we've gotten along as well as we have. He's probably had fewer complete breakdowns about how horrible I am during the past 10 months than during any other 10-month period since we've met. As horrible as I am, we're still both here.
Sitting here on the Left in the US, I hope the next Senate churn moves in our direction instead of back to the Republicans. We could move the center-of-gravity swing Senator from WV to MT, a very slight improvement ;-)
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Part of my retirement planning is my personal 30-year Green Communism path, also paying off all my non-mortgage debt, and eventually moving out of this house. But another part is doing what I've been telling everybody on the Left to do -- moving to a state where my vote isn't completely wasted. I think I've written in here before that I want to move to the swingiest state that has already legalized marijuana, because I might want to smoke occasionally in retirement and I'd like to do so legally. The only place I've ever bought marijuana legally in my entire life was Amsterdam, on a trip with K. Although marijuana is legal in DC, it isn't legal to buy it in DC. I haven't bought it illegally in DC either, not recently anyway. I think the last time I bought pot in the US was back around when 9/11 happened.
Michigan was the state, last time I checked. And then I picked out which city I want to live in, and then I even picked out which building I want to live in, heh. But this will probably change between now and 2027.
Of course, I might end up in a new or different relationship by then, which would require negotiations about possibly moving somewhere. Maybe I'm stuck in the DC area for life. Maybe my future partner wants to move to Portland like everybody else, heh.
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B's husband is back in town for the weekend (don't ask me why, I don't know), so I won't get the house to myself. T encouraged me to go to the condo this weekend. He said he'd take Dax to the vet on Saturday, so I might head downtown midday tomorrow, although I'd still have to work when I got there, I have an afternoon meeting. But I could get an earlier start on my fun if I drive there midday.
I thought about waiting until Saturday and going for one night, but we're probably getting significant snow on Sunday ... do I want to be driving back to the house in a snowstorm?
If I can get my weight lifting done tomorrow morning, and can drive downtown before my afternoon meeting, I'll probably head to the condo tomorrow. Then the snow forecast will help me to decide whether I stay one night or two. Also, checking in with T about how he's doing. We are still each other's primary social support during Quarantine and my life is easier when my presence helps him to avoid an emotional crash, just as my life is easier when his presence helps me in the same way.
I suspect that after we get our shots, we'll be spending a lot of time socializing with other people. And by this time next year, I should know whether I will want to stay in this house until I retire, or whether I will want to move out during summer 2022. And then would I live in the condo until I retire, or buy my own separate place? It will be weird when my life starts moving again, after this extremely introverted pause, after my beloved K moved away. Despite all the complaints I've had about T during this Quarantine, I'm still genuinely surprised we've gotten along as well as we have. He's probably had fewer complete breakdowns about how horrible I am during the past 10 months than during any other 10-month period since we've met. As horrible as I am, we're still both here.
Watching my favorite married-gay-porn-stars couple fully clothed on live cam playing with their new puppy is the best thing I've seen in years.
The pets here at the house are definitely an anchor for me. And I'm not sure I could do without any pets if I lived by myself again.
I didn't think pets were allowed at the condo, but as I approached the back door last time I saw a dog, definitely a dog, sitting in the window of one of the units, looking out at me. Are you allowed to be there, I thought, heh. If so, I want one too.
The pets here at the house are definitely an anchor for me. And I'm not sure I could do without any pets if I lived by myself again.
I didn't think pets were allowed at the condo, but as I approached the back door last time I saw a dog, definitely a dog, sitting in the window of one of the units, looking out at me. Are you allowed to be there, I thought, heh. If so, I want one too.
sort of forgot this
8 January 2021 18:56Yeah, one benefit of playing at the house is that I can play the $$$$$ stereo as loud as I want, yeah. Right now I'm not even taking advantage of that, but I will.
And, there's the hot tub, of course.
And, not having to drive anywhere, not having to lug stuff back and forth, "free" washer and dryer here.
But I sometimes forget, here at the house I can make AS MUCH NOISE AS I WANT TO MAKE WHEN I'M PLAYING WITH MY BUTT!
Lots of noises! I can do a bit of this at the condo, but there's a volume ceiling there.
Here, I can blow my internal speakers, heh.
I should keep this in mind, when choosing my retirement situation. Houses are a lot more work, but I can make a lot more noise.
And, there's the hot tub, of course.
And, not having to drive anywhere, not having to lug stuff back and forth, "free" washer and dryer here.
But I sometimes forget, here at the house I can make AS MUCH NOISE AS I WANT TO MAKE WHEN I'M PLAYING WITH MY BUTT!
Lots of noises! I can do a bit of this at the condo, but there's a volume ceiling there.
Here, I can blow my internal speakers, heh.
I should keep this in mind, when choosing my retirement situation. Houses are a lot more work, but I can make a lot more noise.
quiet evening
24 December 2020 20:48Have I ever experienced such a quiet Christmas Eve? Ah, yes, in 2002. I deliberately spent Christmas Eve by myself, in my studio apartment in SW DC, because my father had died a month before, and for the first time in my life I was an orphan. I deliberately chose not to travel for Christmas. For all of my life I'd spent Christmas Eve with one or both of my parents. In 2002 I worked a half day, then went to the gym, then to the Safeway for ingredients, then baked cookies for hours. It was snowing, one of the few white Christmases I've experienced in the DC area. The next day, Christmas Day, I expected to see local friends. It became my new tradition, to not travel for Christmas, to see local friends.
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Tonight I cooked dinner for T, and then he went directly to bed. Quietest Christmas Eve in 18 years. Usually we have our Christmas Eve Orphan's Party here at the house, and every friend we have who hasn't traveled for the holiday drops by to share drinks, desserts, and board games. Sometimes the hot tub and/or the fire pit. Sometimes competitive video games in our Media Cave.
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The following year, 2003, I went to Hampton, Virginia, with KWC to stay with his family. KWC, my first live-in boyfriend, from the 1990s. We stayed friends after he broke up with me, after I started fucking around and he fell in love with Eliot. I still send his parents a Christmas gift every year, in a way they're my substitute parents. I spent many a night under their roof when I was younger. Sometimes having sex with KWC after his parents had fallen asleep.
Then in 2004, I was in the middle of moving in with T, having met him that January. Oh, I was so happy to be moving in with him after living alone for years. We were still in our honeymoon stage. He hadn't begun souring on me yet. The souring happened after we bought this house together, in 2006. Then he decided I wasn't any good at being a joint homeowner. But, he'd been the one who pushed us into it before I was ready. Maybe I never was going to be ready for homeownership. Then he got so mad at me about so many things, big and small. I tried so hard to please him and it never worked, so I gave up. Then we did poly wrong, adding other relationships instead of fixing our own first, trying a triad when we couldn't communicate well with each other. We never did fix our relationship, although couples counseling got us to a point where we understood each other better, well enough to be mostly-friendly housemates, so long as T wasn't feeling upset about one of his other relationships -- then he'd take out his frustrations on me. Sometimes I'm shocked we still live together, given the long list of grievances he's collected about me over the past 16 years, and our complete lack of a sex life. For a few years he was mainly focused on B, while I was mainly focused on K, but ... last year B let his husband move back in, this year K moved away with his boyfriend.
And meanwhile the Pandemic has forced us to spend day and night together, except when I head to the condo for Time to Self.
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Now we have our medium-term plan, to keep the house together for now, to take care of the pets together for now, perhaps until we retire and split up. After the Vaccine I'll be open to a new relationship, though. If T and B aren't able to patch things up now that B's husband is moving Northeast, I expect T will also be open to a new relationship. So we might not last until retirement, we might find new people to live with instead. Who knows. Maybe T and B will live together after all, and I'll move out. I kinda doubt T could live with anybody else, I've seen his temper.
I'm not sure living with a romantic partner is the best idea for me either. At this age I might be better off dating one or more people who don't want to live with me. Let me have regular time by myself in my own apartment or condo, while we have frequent sleepovers.
I'm not worried about being too old to find somebody or somebodies new. My father and both grandfathers before me had no trouble remarrying after their spouses passed away. I get crushes on people easily enough, I'm reasonably attractive. The tricky part will be engaging my rational brain -- deciding whether the person I have a crush on is really the kind of person I'll get along with over the long haul.
But maybe there is no long haul. Especially when no kids are involved. I often think the main reason I'm still living with T is not T himself but our pets, who are all now over 10 years old. Is that just an excuse, or did I make a commitment to these living beings to take care of them until death do us part? And I think all of them need both T and me, there's too many of them for one human who has a full-time job outside of the house (in normal times). Before I used to think the reason I hadn't moved out yet was because the house was still underwater, but now we have plenty of equity. Now would be a good time to sell and split the profits. And maybe if it weren't for the Pandemic ... I can't imagine living alone right now, or playing roommate roulette with a newbie.
Yeah, we're both living with somebody we know how to live with, taking care of pets and house and each other together, until sometime in 2021, when circumstances will change.
-----
I kinda didn't want to dump all this on my readers on a Christmas Eve, when most of you are busier than I am. Thinking about marking this private? My one Quarantine human is sick and went to bed. I hope the rest of you have a bit more socializing happening than I do tonight. But I'm OK. I'm not depressed. Somewhat nostalgic, and missing certain people, but also ... a bit relieved that I haven't spent the past 48 hours preparing for a huge party that will wear me out, that I'll spend the next 48 hours cleaning up after.
If our plan to have one other household over had worked out, I might have felt afterward like it was the perfect Christmas. I think if I were living by myself again, spending Christmas with just a small group of people would be nice. Some of the people who I keep in touch with regularly anyway, instead of the mob of people I really only see at Christmas.
Back in 2002, after my father's death, that's what I wanted Christmas to be. Spend it with a few friends. Ditto in 2003, spent it with KWC's small family of four people. Inviting everybody we know to spend Christmas Eve with us, that's a T thing, not a Bug thing.
I'm spending this Christmas Eve with Astrid. I think I'll watch some more Outlander until I get sleepy. Then tomorrow morning, I'll open presents and a bottle of champagne with T. And cook two meals! Then Saturday I'll head to the condo for Time to Self. Just that one night, not a Friday-Sunday stay, because I care too much about T, despite everything over the past 16 years, or because of everything over the past 16 years, to leave him alone on Christmas Day.
-----
Tonight I cooked dinner for T, and then he went directly to bed. Quietest Christmas Eve in 18 years. Usually we have our Christmas Eve Orphan's Party here at the house, and every friend we have who hasn't traveled for the holiday drops by to share drinks, desserts, and board games. Sometimes the hot tub and/or the fire pit. Sometimes competitive video games in our Media Cave.
-----
The following year, 2003, I went to Hampton, Virginia, with KWC to stay with his family. KWC, my first live-in boyfriend, from the 1990s. We stayed friends after he broke up with me, after I started fucking around and he fell in love with Eliot. I still send his parents a Christmas gift every year, in a way they're my substitute parents. I spent many a night under their roof when I was younger. Sometimes having sex with KWC after his parents had fallen asleep.
Then in 2004, I was in the middle of moving in with T, having met him that January. Oh, I was so happy to be moving in with him after living alone for years. We were still in our honeymoon stage. He hadn't begun souring on me yet. The souring happened after we bought this house together, in 2006. Then he decided I wasn't any good at being a joint homeowner. But, he'd been the one who pushed us into it before I was ready. Maybe I never was going to be ready for homeownership. Then he got so mad at me about so many things, big and small. I tried so hard to please him and it never worked, so I gave up. Then we did poly wrong, adding other relationships instead of fixing our own first, trying a triad when we couldn't communicate well with each other. We never did fix our relationship, although couples counseling got us to a point where we understood each other better, well enough to be mostly-friendly housemates, so long as T wasn't feeling upset about one of his other relationships -- then he'd take out his frustrations on me. Sometimes I'm shocked we still live together, given the long list of grievances he's collected about me over the past 16 years, and our complete lack of a sex life. For a few years he was mainly focused on B, while I was mainly focused on K, but ... last year B let his husband move back in, this year K moved away with his boyfriend.
And meanwhile the Pandemic has forced us to spend day and night together, except when I head to the condo for Time to Self.
-----
Now we have our medium-term plan, to keep the house together for now, to take care of the pets together for now, perhaps until we retire and split up. After the Vaccine I'll be open to a new relationship, though. If T and B aren't able to patch things up now that B's husband is moving Northeast, I expect T will also be open to a new relationship. So we might not last until retirement, we might find new people to live with instead. Who knows. Maybe T and B will live together after all, and I'll move out. I kinda doubt T could live with anybody else, I've seen his temper.
I'm not sure living with a romantic partner is the best idea for me either. At this age I might be better off dating one or more people who don't want to live with me. Let me have regular time by myself in my own apartment or condo, while we have frequent sleepovers.
I'm not worried about being too old to find somebody or somebodies new. My father and both grandfathers before me had no trouble remarrying after their spouses passed away. I get crushes on people easily enough, I'm reasonably attractive. The tricky part will be engaging my rational brain -- deciding whether the person I have a crush on is really the kind of person I'll get along with over the long haul.
But maybe there is no long haul. Especially when no kids are involved. I often think the main reason I'm still living with T is not T himself but our pets, who are all now over 10 years old. Is that just an excuse, or did I make a commitment to these living beings to take care of them until death do us part? And I think all of them need both T and me, there's too many of them for one human who has a full-time job outside of the house (in normal times). Before I used to think the reason I hadn't moved out yet was because the house was still underwater, but now we have plenty of equity. Now would be a good time to sell and split the profits. And maybe if it weren't for the Pandemic ... I can't imagine living alone right now, or playing roommate roulette with a newbie.
Yeah, we're both living with somebody we know how to live with, taking care of pets and house and each other together, until sometime in 2021, when circumstances will change.
-----
I kinda didn't want to dump all this on my readers on a Christmas Eve, when most of you are busier than I am. Thinking about marking this private? My one Quarantine human is sick and went to bed. I hope the rest of you have a bit more socializing happening than I do tonight. But I'm OK. I'm not depressed. Somewhat nostalgic, and missing certain people, but also ... a bit relieved that I haven't spent the past 48 hours preparing for a huge party that will wear me out, that I'll spend the next 48 hours cleaning up after.
If our plan to have one other household over had worked out, I might have felt afterward like it was the perfect Christmas. I think if I were living by myself again, spending Christmas with just a small group of people would be nice. Some of the people who I keep in touch with regularly anyway, instead of the mob of people I really only see at Christmas.
Back in 2002, after my father's death, that's what I wanted Christmas to be. Spend it with a few friends. Ditto in 2003, spent it with KWC's small family of four people. Inviting everybody we know to spend Christmas Eve with us, that's a T thing, not a Bug thing.
I'm spending this Christmas Eve with Astrid. I think I'll watch some more Outlander until I get sleepy. Then tomorrow morning, I'll open presents and a bottle of champagne with T. And cook two meals! Then Saturday I'll head to the condo for Time to Self. Just that one night, not a Friday-Sunday stay, because I care too much about T, despite everything over the past 16 years, or because of everything over the past 16 years, to leave him alone on Christmas Day.
Home Alone :-)
18 December 2020 15:26T left very early this morning, earlier than I expected. I still needed to work a half day, so that's what I did. Stopped working at 2pm, started warming up for toys 2:45pm. Nothing on the Bug Calendar until Sunday afternoon! Yay!
For some reason T left his new laptop behind, which has an account for me from when my laptop was "sleeping", so I'm using that to type this while my other laptops are busy showing porn :o)
I created an account at a poetry site, and posted two of my favorite poems there, along with the one I wrote this morning. I already have two followers! I've had multiple people who are close to me in real life ask me to write more poetry, but I feel like it's not something I can produce on demand, but maybe that's just a confidence thing, maybe if I worked at it instead of occasionally pissing it out on the page after a long period of pent up poetry piss ...
I once described poetry as prose with most of the words deleted, but there's more to it than that, and so many different ways of doing poetry. But working on poetry more may lead me into writing lyrics and then putting together music with vocals ... so, more angles on this very slow project that is nevertheless moving forward -- my concept album. I know the title of the album, the names of the songs, it's top-down in this way, but also bottom-up in that I'm going to grow my songs into the concepts instead of growing the concepts into the songs. Can I apply the role-play method I use to write stories to writing music? How would that work?
27 days since orgasm, feels like longer? Tomorrow I may draw another card, and I probably will. If I'm still awake at midnight I may draw it then. I can't expect anything to come of this draw, my expected date of next orgasm is in February now? I haven't been horny much lately because of my overall life confidence issues since my annual review last Friday, but my mood has been improving. I've done some good work this week, although my Boss can't see it, so much of what I do is stuff he'll never know about. I did some top-level negotiating with representatives of a major multinational corporate acquisition valued at tens of billions of US dollars this morning. Not to "brag" but to build up my self-confidence, that I have wonderful attorneys working for me, who can brief me up in 30 minutes, and then I can go toe-to-toe with major multinational corporations.
Sometimes T says I should go work for those multinational corporations and increase my salary by several times. But instead I daydream about becoming a union organizer on my way to becoming a neo-gatherer heh.
I wouldn't have any money problems if I weren't in a nesting relationship with T -- I didn't have money problems before I bought this house with him. I don't need more money, I need the streams of money that I do have to be predictable, which has always been the issue with T -- eventually I get the cash, but the timing can drive me nuts, because our personalities are different along the money dimension. And I need to stop living in this money pit of a house, which, yeah, by retirement time the plan is to have a much less expensive dwelling.
Part of me wants to move back to Racine, the city I was born in, after retirement. It's one of the most affordable places to live in the US. Because there's no reason for college graduates to live there, heh. I think about living there for a year to write a book and create an album and volunteer with some sort of political cause. Heh, we'll see. For now, I'm just trying to not go crazy while waiting for this Quarantine to end.
For some reason T left his new laptop behind, which has an account for me from when my laptop was "sleeping", so I'm using that to type this while my other laptops are busy showing porn :o)
I created an account at a poetry site, and posted two of my favorite poems there, along with the one I wrote this morning. I already have two followers! I've had multiple people who are close to me in real life ask me to write more poetry, but I feel like it's not something I can produce on demand, but maybe that's just a confidence thing, maybe if I worked at it instead of occasionally pissing it out on the page after a long period of pent up poetry piss ...
I once described poetry as prose with most of the words deleted, but there's more to it than that, and so many different ways of doing poetry. But working on poetry more may lead me into writing lyrics and then putting together music with vocals ... so, more angles on this very slow project that is nevertheless moving forward -- my concept album. I know the title of the album, the names of the songs, it's top-down in this way, but also bottom-up in that I'm going to grow my songs into the concepts instead of growing the concepts into the songs. Can I apply the role-play method I use to write stories to writing music? How would that work?
27 days since orgasm, feels like longer? Tomorrow I may draw another card, and I probably will. If I'm still awake at midnight I may draw it then. I can't expect anything to come of this draw, my expected date of next orgasm is in February now? I haven't been horny much lately because of my overall life confidence issues since my annual review last Friday, but my mood has been improving. I've done some good work this week, although my Boss can't see it, so much of what I do is stuff he'll never know about. I did some top-level negotiating with representatives of a major multinational corporate acquisition valued at tens of billions of US dollars this morning. Not to "brag" but to build up my self-confidence, that I have wonderful attorneys working for me, who can brief me up in 30 minutes, and then I can go toe-to-toe with major multinational corporations.
Sometimes T says I should go work for those multinational corporations and increase my salary by several times. But instead I daydream about becoming a union organizer on my way to becoming a neo-gatherer heh.
I wouldn't have any money problems if I weren't in a nesting relationship with T -- I didn't have money problems before I bought this house with him. I don't need more money, I need the streams of money that I do have to be predictable, which has always been the issue with T -- eventually I get the cash, but the timing can drive me nuts, because our personalities are different along the money dimension. And I need to stop living in this money pit of a house, which, yeah, by retirement time the plan is to have a much less expensive dwelling.
Part of me wants to move back to Racine, the city I was born in, after retirement. It's one of the most affordable places to live in the US. Because there's no reason for college graduates to live there, heh. I think about living there for a year to write a book and create an album and volunteer with some sort of political cause. Heh, we'll see. For now, I'm just trying to not go crazy while waiting for this Quarantine to end.
Porn directors make 5x what porn stars make.
post-retirement career ...
or, I could organize a porn star labor union ;-) we have nothing to lose but our orgasms!
yeah, just took sleeping pill, because otherwise sleep is not
post-retirement career ...
or, I could organize a porn star labor union ;-) we have nothing to lose but our orgasms!
yeah, just took sleeping pill, because otherwise sleep is not
so much cleaning!
22 November 2020 08:55If I lived here full-time at the condo, or somewhere else on my own, would I be as concerned about cleanliness as I am right now? I don't think I was this concerned about cleanliness back when I lived by myself from 1998-2004. How I tackled the rats nest underneath the TV immediately after K moved. How I ascertained and quickly took care of the plumbing leak. And now how I've spent hours cleaning the place this weekend -- I even got out the vacuum cleaner for the first time! It's going to require a deep cleaning every month or two, even if it's only me and I'm only here 10-20% of the time.
I think if I lived here I'd try to keep it clean, streamlined, and organized, much as K kept it. As little clutter as possible. So much of the stuff I have at the house would be gone. Which friend of mine would like to have all my board games? And which would like to have all my books? I'd downsize clothing.
If I lived here I'd cook at least half of my meals, like I do at the house -- so far I haven't cooked anything here, I've ordered delivery and brought pre-packaged snacks. There's practically nothing edible in the fridge or cupboards. But I'd make double or triple portions and save the rest for later, or I'd invite people over. I'd probably keep doing those meal kits, would need to do all the dishes myself even though I'm the cook -- T and I split those chores, if you didn't cook you do the dishes.
An efficiency condo like this one feels tight after living in a big house for 14 years, I'd probably prefer a 1BR, but I could live here and it would be affordable in retirement under my current below-market arrangement with K, in which I pay the net expenses while he keeps the equity. There's enough storage for all my toys, a desk to work from, and even enough room to exercise in when the weather sucks. I'd join a gym, though, after Quarantine, for weight lifting. I'd be ruthless about downsizing possessions and keeping only what I expect to use. First cutoff -- if I haven't used an item in the past year, get rid of it. Clothing I haven't worn, games I haven't played, books I haven't read, and all kinds of mementos. And if I lived here, we'd have to move some of K's remaining stuff out of the closets, of course.
Living alone here during Quarantine would've sucked. Like some people I know who live alone, I would've created a bubble of family and friends to see in person, even though we occupy separate households.
The last time I lived alone I was considering getting a cat. But after the current crop of three simultaneous pets -- as much as I love them -- I don't think I'll want to encumber my life that way again. I'm sure T would want pets again, it's part of our future incompatibility as retirement nears -- we'll want different lifestyles, in different locations, and T would probably continue working even after drawing his pension to support a more expensive lifestyle than I will want. I will no longer want to pay for (somewhat more than) half of our joint lifestyle.
-----
Practically zero transition anxiety this morning, because I acted more like I live here this weekend instead of stuffing it full of as much play time as possible, so there's not a pile of stuff to do this morning before I leave. Even had a sober Saturday night! Now I just have to brush teeth, shower, put away the few remaining items, and take the trash out as I leave.
Back to the house for lunch. T says we cannot finish doing the basement stuff yet because the new floor covering he ordered hasn't arrived yet, but I can resume shared meals with him, taking care of the pets, and unfortunately I have to work for a while this afternoon. Then a short work week followed by a 4-day weekend, of which I will likely spend two nights here at the condo again.
And I was randomly allowed an orgasm yesterday, so I'm much less riled up by my sex drive today, could be 7-14 days until I'm back to feeling crazy horny. I've been too lucky with the Cum Deck so far, two of my first six cards have allowed me orgasms. The rest of the cards will be less permissive -- roughly 200 days to go with 4 orgasms to go, so an orgasm every 50 days on average if I draw cards every day. If I wait two weeks until I'm super horny again, it could be months later that I get to cum. Or not!
I think if I lived here I'd try to keep it clean, streamlined, and organized, much as K kept it. As little clutter as possible. So much of the stuff I have at the house would be gone. Which friend of mine would like to have all my board games? And which would like to have all my books? I'd downsize clothing.
If I lived here I'd cook at least half of my meals, like I do at the house -- so far I haven't cooked anything here, I've ordered delivery and brought pre-packaged snacks. There's practically nothing edible in the fridge or cupboards. But I'd make double or triple portions and save the rest for later, or I'd invite people over. I'd probably keep doing those meal kits, would need to do all the dishes myself even though I'm the cook -- T and I split those chores, if you didn't cook you do the dishes.
An efficiency condo like this one feels tight after living in a big house for 14 years, I'd probably prefer a 1BR, but I could live here and it would be affordable in retirement under my current below-market arrangement with K, in which I pay the net expenses while he keeps the equity. There's enough storage for all my toys, a desk to work from, and even enough room to exercise in when the weather sucks. I'd join a gym, though, after Quarantine, for weight lifting. I'd be ruthless about downsizing possessions and keeping only what I expect to use. First cutoff -- if I haven't used an item in the past year, get rid of it. Clothing I haven't worn, games I haven't played, books I haven't read, and all kinds of mementos. And if I lived here, we'd have to move some of K's remaining stuff out of the closets, of course.
Living alone here during Quarantine would've sucked. Like some people I know who live alone, I would've created a bubble of family and friends to see in person, even though we occupy separate households.
The last time I lived alone I was considering getting a cat. But after the current crop of three simultaneous pets -- as much as I love them -- I don't think I'll want to encumber my life that way again. I'm sure T would want pets again, it's part of our future incompatibility as retirement nears -- we'll want different lifestyles, in different locations, and T would probably continue working even after drawing his pension to support a more expensive lifestyle than I will want. I will no longer want to pay for (somewhat more than) half of our joint lifestyle.
-----
Practically zero transition anxiety this morning, because I acted more like I live here this weekend instead of stuffing it full of as much play time as possible, so there's not a pile of stuff to do this morning before I leave. Even had a sober Saturday night! Now I just have to brush teeth, shower, put away the few remaining items, and take the trash out as I leave.
Back to the house for lunch. T says we cannot finish doing the basement stuff yet because the new floor covering he ordered hasn't arrived yet, but I can resume shared meals with him, taking care of the pets, and unfortunately I have to work for a while this afternoon. Then a short work week followed by a 4-day weekend, of which I will likely spend two nights here at the condo again.
And I was randomly allowed an orgasm yesterday, so I'm much less riled up by my sex drive today, could be 7-14 days until I'm back to feeling crazy horny. I've been too lucky with the Cum Deck so far, two of my first six cards have allowed me orgasms. The rest of the cards will be less permissive -- roughly 200 days to go with 4 orgasms to go, so an orgasm every 50 days on average if I draw cards every day. If I wait two weeks until I'm super horny again, it could be months later that I get to cum. Or not!
The all-time greatest stock market bubble in US history, as measured by the Shiller PE ratio, peaked around January 2000. Also known as the Dot-Com Bubble, the US stock market had never been so expensive.
Previously, you had to go all the way back to 1929, the Roaring Twenties, to find the greatest stock market bubble in US history.
But right now, in 2020, in the midst of this Pandemic Recession, we're living through another of the three greatest stock market bubbles in US history. Stock prices are currently more expensive than they were at their 1929 peak. Stock prices were only more expensive than they are now during the 1998-2001 Dot-Com Bubble.
-----
But there's another bubble happening right now, one that fewer people pay attention to, because it isn't reported daily or hourly or second-by-second like stock prices.
We're living through the greatest bond market bubble in US history, and as far as I can tell, in world history. In all of world history. In human history. Long-term US government bonds are sold at interest rates below 1% -- this has never happened before. Corporate bonds are selling at their all-time lowest interest rates. And it's not news anymore to anybody who reads the financial press, but trillions of dollars worth of foreign government bonds are selling at negative interest rates -- which means a guaranteed loss if you hold them to maturity. Negative interest rates, especially on this tremendous scale, have never happened before in human history.
-----
If your retirement account consists of mainly stocks and bonds, which would describe the vast majority of retirement accounts, then you're invested in the second greatest stock market bubble in US history, and the greatest bond market bubble in the history of the known universe. Your retirement account balance may look great now, but account balances always look great during bubbles.
What's especially strange about the current dual stock/bond market bubbles, is that they are persisting during a time when nearly a million people are losing their jobs EVERY WEEK in the US.
It's as though some sort of magical force field has separated the stock and bond markets from the rest of the economy.
-----
I've watched my favorite restaurant close. My favorite concert venue close. My favorite sex club close. My gym close.
65 million people have filed for unemployment in the US since mid-March! (Some of these may be the same person being laid off more than once, but, still, completely unprecedented.)
Yet stocks are more expensive than in 1929 (relative to underlying earnings), and bonds are more expensive than ever (relative to interest paid). It makes no sense!
-----
Earlier this year I'd set aside some "play money" to speculate on the financial markets. Overall I made a profit -- and every bet I placed did well except for one horrible miscalculation that cost me most of my profit. This horrible miscalculation was that I expected the stock market to decline this year, I sold stocks short. Not just any stocks, I sold short the high-flying most-bubbly technology stocks. But instead of going down, they went up even more.
With the election approaching, and a Third Wave of COVID-19 growing in the US, I've liquidated all of my play bets. I took my profits, and cut my losses. I'm waiting until my crystal ball clears up. I have no idea what's coming next in the short term.
But with my retirement account, I'm mainly invested in the "G" fund, which is the equivalent of a cash money-market fund. Not stocks, not bonds. Oh, I've got about 20% in stocks and 5% in bonds, for a bit of diversification, but mainly I'm hiding out in cash.
Hiding out in cash during a bubble can look stupid while the bubble persists. Everybody who has invested in stocks and bonds has made a killing. But when the bubble inevitably pops, I'll still hold most of the value of my retirement account. And with my retirement approaching in 2027, I'd rather hold most of my value in seven years than take a bet on having more.
-----
I think the inevitable result of these bubbles is going to be global financial and economic disruption, accompanied by a lot of inflation. So I think gold and real estate are the best long-term bets right now. But gold and real estate prices can be volatile also -- and they are generally not options for retirement accounts.
Perhaps after the election dust settles I'll put my play money into gold and real estate bets. But for now I'm sitting on cash, in both my retirement account, and my play money account.
If your retirement is still decades away, and you've invested in an age-appropriate "lifecycle" fund, you shouldn't worry about the markets or the bubbles. But if you're planning to retire this decade, beware. Now might be a good time to increase your cash level. But, these bubbles could persist a couple years longer, who knows. There's no expiration date on irrational behavior.
Previously, you had to go all the way back to 1929, the Roaring Twenties, to find the greatest stock market bubble in US history.
But right now, in 2020, in the midst of this Pandemic Recession, we're living through another of the three greatest stock market bubbles in US history. Stock prices are currently more expensive than they were at their 1929 peak. Stock prices were only more expensive than they are now during the 1998-2001 Dot-Com Bubble.
-----
But there's another bubble happening right now, one that fewer people pay attention to, because it isn't reported daily or hourly or second-by-second like stock prices.
We're living through the greatest bond market bubble in US history, and as far as I can tell, in world history. In all of world history. In human history. Long-term US government bonds are sold at interest rates below 1% -- this has never happened before. Corporate bonds are selling at their all-time lowest interest rates. And it's not news anymore to anybody who reads the financial press, but trillions of dollars worth of foreign government bonds are selling at negative interest rates -- which means a guaranteed loss if you hold them to maturity. Negative interest rates, especially on this tremendous scale, have never happened before in human history.
-----
If your retirement account consists of mainly stocks and bonds, which would describe the vast majority of retirement accounts, then you're invested in the second greatest stock market bubble in US history, and the greatest bond market bubble in the history of the known universe. Your retirement account balance may look great now, but account balances always look great during bubbles.
What's especially strange about the current dual stock/bond market bubbles, is that they are persisting during a time when nearly a million people are losing their jobs EVERY WEEK in the US.
It's as though some sort of magical force field has separated the stock and bond markets from the rest of the economy.
-----
I've watched my favorite restaurant close. My favorite concert venue close. My favorite sex club close. My gym close.
65 million people have filed for unemployment in the US since mid-March! (Some of these may be the same person being laid off more than once, but, still, completely unprecedented.)
Yet stocks are more expensive than in 1929 (relative to underlying earnings), and bonds are more expensive than ever (relative to interest paid). It makes no sense!
-----
Earlier this year I'd set aside some "play money" to speculate on the financial markets. Overall I made a profit -- and every bet I placed did well except for one horrible miscalculation that cost me most of my profit. This horrible miscalculation was that I expected the stock market to decline this year, I sold stocks short. Not just any stocks, I sold short the high-flying most-bubbly technology stocks. But instead of going down, they went up even more.
With the election approaching, and a Third Wave of COVID-19 growing in the US, I've liquidated all of my play bets. I took my profits, and cut my losses. I'm waiting until my crystal ball clears up. I have no idea what's coming next in the short term.
But with my retirement account, I'm mainly invested in the "G" fund, which is the equivalent of a cash money-market fund. Not stocks, not bonds. Oh, I've got about 20% in stocks and 5% in bonds, for a bit of diversification, but mainly I'm hiding out in cash.
Hiding out in cash during a bubble can look stupid while the bubble persists. Everybody who has invested in stocks and bonds has made a killing. But when the bubble inevitably pops, I'll still hold most of the value of my retirement account. And with my retirement approaching in 2027, I'd rather hold most of my value in seven years than take a bet on having more.
-----
I think the inevitable result of these bubbles is going to be global financial and economic disruption, accompanied by a lot of inflation. So I think gold and real estate are the best long-term bets right now. But gold and real estate prices can be volatile also -- and they are generally not options for retirement accounts.
Perhaps after the election dust settles I'll put my play money into gold and real estate bets. But for now I'm sitting on cash, in both my retirement account, and my play money account.
If your retirement is still decades away, and you've invested in an age-appropriate "lifecycle" fund, you shouldn't worry about the markets or the bubbles. But if you're planning to retire this decade, beware. Now might be a good time to increase your cash level. But, these bubbles could persist a couple years longer, who knows. There's no expiration date on irrational behavior.
my 16th prime-number birthday approaches, during Quarantine, sweet 16′,
mainly I feel I don't have enough time,
this is why I fantasize about retirement, and then living by myself, having enough time, I never have enough time, I have way more things I want to do,
I shouldn't be surprised if before I retire, something happens, a health issue ... and then I have even less time, never enough time, I'll have to prioritize, what will I do during these three months I have left,
-----
what am I supposed to accomplish during the time I still have? I swing between obligations and freedom, under Quarantine, with my very few humans, my pets, my toys, my journals,
I was looking at an egalitarian intentional commune in rural Virginia, and my #1 question was, can I retire there, or will they require I work 42 hours per week like everybody else has to, yeah, I understand, you work to eat in a commune, but, retirement ... I could throw my income & assets at you, if you just allow me to live,
my dream of retirement in seven years and eighteen days, having a pension, Social Security, my home equity, my 401(k)-like TSP, it will be enough, especially if I move to a less expensive part of the planet, until the US falls apart ...
I expect that everything I have now will disappear between now and then, and I will rebuild, but ... then you will fall, then this will fall, I will rebuild as the tsunami, I won't even see it, my back toward the ocean, as I rebuild,
it's time to become a different species, a different kind of consciousness, something other than a brain, something without words,
mainly I feel I don't have enough time,
this is why I fantasize about retirement, and then living by myself, having enough time, I never have enough time, I have way more things I want to do,
I shouldn't be surprised if before I retire, something happens, a health issue ... and then I have even less time, never enough time, I'll have to prioritize, what will I do during these three months I have left,
-----
what am I supposed to accomplish during the time I still have? I swing between obligations and freedom, under Quarantine, with my very few humans, my pets, my toys, my journals,
I was looking at an egalitarian intentional commune in rural Virginia, and my #1 question was, can I retire there, or will they require I work 42 hours per week like everybody else has to, yeah, I understand, you work to eat in a commune, but, retirement ... I could throw my income & assets at you, if you just allow me to live,
my dream of retirement in seven years and eighteen days, having a pension, Social Security, my home equity, my 401(k)-like TSP, it will be enough, especially if I move to a less expensive part of the planet, until the US falls apart ...
I expect that everything I have now will disappear between now and then, and I will rebuild, but ... then you will fall, then this will fall, I will rebuild as the tsunami, I won't even see it, my back toward the ocean, as I rebuild,
it's time to become a different species, a different kind of consciousness, something other than a brain, something without words,
