$30/month back in my pocket

My gym just closed permanently.  Membership automatically cancelled.  As I've switched to lifting weights in the basement, I might have eventually cancelled it anyway, but at $30/month I felt like I was contributing to keeping a business open even if I wasn't using it right now.  Even if I wasn't a big fan of their business practices.

Places I used to go to regularly keep disappearing.  But the stock market is happy.

the three greatest stock market bubbles in US history

The all-time greatest stock market bubble in US history, as measured by the Shiller PE ratio, peaked around January 2000.  Also known as the Dot-Com Bubble, the US stock market had never been so expensive.

Previously, you had to go all the way back to 1929, the Roaring Twenties, to find the greatest stock market bubble in US history.

But right now, in 2020, in the midst of this Pandemic Recession, we're living through another of the three greatest stock market bubbles in US history.  Stock prices are currently more expensive than they were at their 1929 peak.  Stock prices were only more expensive than they are now during the 1998-2001 Dot-Com Bubble.

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But there's another bubble happening right now, one that fewer people pay attention to, because it isn't reported daily or hourly or second-by-second like stock prices.

We're living through the greatest bond market bubble in US history, and as far as I can tell, in world history.  In all of world history.  In human history.  Long-term US government bonds are sold at interest rates below 1% -- this has never happened before.  Corporate bonds are selling at their all-time lowest interest rates.  And it's not news anymore to anybody who reads the financial press, but trillions of dollars worth of foreign government bonds are selling at negative interest rates -- which means a guaranteed loss if you hold them to maturity.  Negative interest rates, especially on this tremendous scale, have never happened before in human history.

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If your retirement account consists of mainly stocks and bonds, which would describe the vast majority of retirement accounts, then you're invested in the second greatest stock market bubble in US history, and the greatest bond market bubble in the history of the known universe.  Your retirement account balance may look great now, but account balances always look great during bubbles.

What's especially strange about the current dual stock/bond market bubbles, is that they are persisting during a time when nearly a million people are losing their jobs EVERY WEEK in the US.

It's as though some sort of magical force field has separated the stock and bond markets from the rest of the economy.

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I've watched my favorite restaurant close.  My favorite concert venue close.  My favorite sex club close.  My gym close.

65 million people have filed for unemployment in the US since mid-March! (Some of these may be the same person being laid off more than once, but, still, completely unprecedented.)

Yet stocks are more expensive than in 1929 (relative to underlying earnings), and bonds are more expensive than ever (relative to interest paid).  It makes no sense!

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Earlier this year I'd set aside some "play money" to speculate on the financial markets.  Overall I made a profit -- and every bet I placed did well except for one horrible miscalculation that cost me most of my profit.  This horrible miscalculation was that I expected the stock market to decline this year, I sold stocks short.  Not just any stocks, I sold short the high-flying most-bubbly technology stocks.  But instead of going down, they went up even more.

With the election approaching, and a Third Wave of COVID-19 growing in the US, I've liquidated all of my play bets.  I took my profits, and cut my losses.  I'm waiting until my crystal ball clears up.  I have no idea what's coming next in the short term.

But with my retirement account, I'm mainly invested in the "G" fund, which is the equivalent of a cash money-market fund.  Not stocks, not bonds.  Oh, I've got about 20% in stocks and 5% in bonds, for a bit of diversification, but mainly I'm hiding out in cash.

Hiding out in cash during a bubble can look stupid while the bubble persists.  Everybody who has invested in stocks and bonds has made a killing.  But when the bubble inevitably pops, I'll still hold most of the value of my retirement account.  And with my retirement approaching in 2027, I'd rather hold most of my value in seven years than take a bet on having more.

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I think the inevitable result of these bubbles is going to be global financial and economic disruption, accompanied by a lot of inflation.  So I think gold and real estate are the best long-term bets right now.  But gold and real estate prices can be volatile also -- and they are generally not options for retirement accounts.

Perhaps after the election dust settles I'll put my play money into gold and real estate bets.  But for now I'm sitting on cash, in both my retirement account, and my play money account.

If your retirement is still decades away, and you've invested in an age-appropriate "lifecycle" fund, you shouldn't worry about the markets or the bubbles.  But if you're planning to retire this decade, beware.  Now might be a good time to increase your cash level.  But, these bubbles could persist a couple years longer, who knows.  There's no expiration date on irrational behavior.

Time to Self at House!

T left this morning while I was running 4 miles.  I spent the morning working and doing chores so I could start relaxing around 2pm.

I'm relaxing now!

I look slightly more overweight naked in the mirrors at the house than the mirrors at the condo, LOL.  I've been exercising regularly (yay!) but not focusing on losing fat.  Of course, I'm in fine shape for a 53-year-old, but I'm always comparing myself to the 22-year-old amateur porn stars with 5,000 followers on Twitter.

Doesn't matter, I'm not looking to hookup with strangers for around six months anyway.  But six months could be a good time period for healthfully focusing on losing 10 pounds ... if only I could spare the mental energy for that task ... too often I've felt like working from home every day with T here and all the pets here is overwhelming.  Somehow more overwhelming than commuting had been, although the thought of resuming my commute makes me evaporate.

Well, this week I did aerobic exercise every morning for 5 days in a row :-)  I've been lifting weights more regularly than in years, because I don't have to squeeze in a trip to the gym in the midst of commuting 60-90 minutes each way.  I think I do consume more calories working from home because the kitchen is RIGHT HERE.

But, if you like fit, intelligent, kinky, professional, older ginger bears, I'm your guy.  Usually enough fellas are into that combo ...

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T went to the grocery store himself yesterday, to stock up for his trip, but somehow neither of us realized we were out of paper towels.  Totally out!  But I didn't want to brave a grocery store today just to get paper towels.  I signed up with Peapod, and ordered a bunch of  groceries that I'll need to munch on while T is away, they will be delivered tomorrow morning.  Along with paper towels.  So, no paper towels until tomorrow.

But, I swept the floors on the main level this morning -- the maids are still on furlough, so I've got to clean the house myself.  I guess each day I'll add something to my regular chores.  But I need paper towels!

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It's a beautiful late October day, so I opened up all the windows and the sun room so the cats could experience free smells.  I also replaced all their scratch boxes, with new catnip, so they must think today I'm throwing a wild party for them :-)

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Warming up my butt for toys -- whatever toys happen to be here at the house -- I haven't had an overnight to self at the house for so long I'm not even sure what toys I have here, but I decided not to drag toys from the condo for just one weekend.  I did bring all my portable screens, so I might have five porn screens going on at the same time here in the living room as I play with my butt and consume intoxicons :-)

Tomorrow afternoon I'm going to play a board game remotely with Steve and two of his friends.  Virtual socializing!!  I sort of think I hate doing stuff virtually, but I don't have other options for having somebody over to play board games.  I'm grateful to Steve for allowing me to join his virtual gaming group.  Thank you, Steve!

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A couple weeks ago I listened to the Fleetwood Mac album "Tusk", which I owned back during high school.  Now you can just stream it from any of the major music streaming services, I'm sure.  I listened to it via Apple Music.  I loved Fleetwood Mac during my adolescence, they were the first concert I ever went to, with my best friend (first male crush).

The album sounded like it was really three different albums interlaced, performed by the same people.  I guess that's what Fleetwood Mac was back then, three different songwriters, all of them working together, sleeping together, breaking up with each other, etc.  Most bands in the 80s had one unified sound.  Fleetwood Mac didn't, but somehow all three of these soundtypes appealed to me, and to millions of other people, all at the same time.

Right now I'm listening to an Apple Music radio station stemming from "Sara", which is the one song from the album that has been on repeat in my brain for the past two weeks.  Constantly streaming Sara inside my own head!  And I don't have to pay the band a penny per stream when it's all inside my head, LOL.

So, I have to listen to "Take it to the Limit" by the Eagles, heh.

At least Fleetwood Mac had some strong women writing and performing their own songs, it wasn't one of these all-male bands.  And not one of those female-led bands that were treated like puppets with breasts while men stayed firmly in charge in the background.

Madonna -- you could rightly find many ways to criticize Madonna's career at this point -- but back then she was a woman who took complete charge of her own career, and did very well at it.  She was no man's puppet, and still isn't.

I also respect Cher, for how she forged her own career separate from Sonny.

It's not a trivial thing, for a woman to make her own way in the world, without the "help" of a man.

Mick Fleetwood:Drums::Eddie Van Halen:Electric Guitar

I don't know whether people know this anymore, but back in the day, and you can truly hear it if you listen to the Fleetwood Mac Live album from 1980,

The reverence we held for Eddie Van Halen's electric guitar playing back then, was equivalent to Mick Fleetwood's drum playing back then.

He was amazing!  The drums!  Nowadays drums are just loops you autoplay on your DAW, but back then it required whole-body energy plus genius plus production values plus properly-amped speakers plus the auditory characteristics of the venue.

What you get today from your little earbuds or your over-ear bluetooth whatevers, today, is not what you got in the 1980s from a large concert venue with these live players.

I can't recreate the 1980s, LOL, and I was depressed most of the time back then anyway -- gays and drugs were super bad, and no Internet to find like-minded fellas ... BDSM was not even possible for me ...

But there was a type of sound that will never exist again, and I heard that sound, in person.  But I can remember it while playing this live album on T's $$,$$$ B&O speakers at volume 53 in this open-plan house from the 1950s.  Goddess I've missed having this house to myself.

Stevie Nicks' voice was still beautiful in 1980 ... like liquid sound ...