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m_d_hI've been sitting away from the playing field for a while. Overall my play money account made a profit, but I had one big horrible losing trade when I sold QQQ short, expecting the bear market to resume along with subsequent waves of COVID-19.
QQQ continues to hit new highs, along with other more recognizable stock market indices, regardless of COVID-19.
But every other trade I did made money. I've given more than my net profits away, it's just a game I'm playing, to see whether I can win.
Today I decided there was one trade I was absolutely certain of -- there's no way long-term US Treasury Bonds (with maturity dates of 20+ years) can avoid declining in value at some point during the next 20 years. No way. I view selling long-term Treasuries as a 100% chance of winning. Maybe not next week, but definitely at some point. So today I began selling short long-term Treasuries.
And, I couldn't help it, once again I sold short QQQ, but with a much smaller bet than previously. I don't feel 100% about this, but I feel QQQ can't keep going up like this forever. At some point the bubble will pop. But it could be a couple more years before it does, who knows.
That's it for now. And I only bet a bit more than 10% of my account today. I'll wait a month and bet some after we know who won the Georgia runoffs. I'm not trying to make big bucks, it's more about placing a marker where I think the markets will go next.
QQQ continues to hit new highs, along with other more recognizable stock market indices, regardless of COVID-19.
But every other trade I did made money. I've given more than my net profits away, it's just a game I'm playing, to see whether I can win.
Today I decided there was one trade I was absolutely certain of -- there's no way long-term US Treasury Bonds (with maturity dates of 20+ years) can avoid declining in value at some point during the next 20 years. No way. I view selling long-term Treasuries as a 100% chance of winning. Maybe not next week, but definitely at some point. So today I began selling short long-term Treasuries.
And, I couldn't help it, once again I sold short QQQ, but with a much smaller bet than previously. I don't feel 100% about this, but I feel QQQ can't keep going up like this forever. At some point the bubble will pop. But it could be a couple more years before it does, who knows.
That's it for now. And I only bet a bit more than 10% of my account today. I'll wait a month and bet some after we know who won the Georgia runoffs. I'm not trying to make big bucks, it's more about placing a marker where I think the markets will go next.