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m_d_hVarious public health officials (including my Public Health Friend) have been saying stuff like "the worst is yet to come" with respect to COVID-19, but I think we've passed the peak, I think the peak for hospitalizations was January 6. We're seeing the 7-day averages for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths start to trend down. I expect this trend to continue at about a 1% decrease per day. Cases are still relatively high, and over four thousand deaths were tallied yesterday. But I do not think the worst is yet to come, I think the worst was a couple weeks ago.
But you don't want people to relax their vigilance when thousands are still dying every day. I don't want any of you to become one of next week's thousands of deaths per day. We're going to see another 100,000 deaths or so by the end of March, or another 200,000 deaths by the end of June. But by summer we'll be back down below 1,000 deaths per day, it will be obvious to all we've passed the peak.
The problem, is that if tomorrow we all went back to normal, things would get even worse. The public health officials are afraid we'll let our guard down too early and have a final worst wave.
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Meanwhile, in the US we're vaccinating about a million people per day. At that rate it will take until the end of the year before every adult gets their first shot, but a million people per day is significant. It means that every three or four days another 1% of the population becomes immune to the virus via vaccination (it takes two weeks for the first shot to take effect, but each day one million more people are getting that shot). Meanwhile, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the population has acquired natural immunity from being exposed to the virus, and this group is also growing at a similar rate from ongoing infections. So let's say each week another 3-4% of the population becomes immune. At some point later this year, most of us will be immune to the virus, via either exposure or vaccination, and we'll all start discussing Going Back to Normal.
There will be criteria for taking certain steps, we'll take other steps in phases. But the tide is turning in the US, the worst was two weeks ago, and by the end of the year most people will be returning to normal activities. Hang in there!
But you don't want people to relax their vigilance when thousands are still dying every day. I don't want any of you to become one of next week's thousands of deaths per day. We're going to see another 100,000 deaths or so by the end of March, or another 200,000 deaths by the end of June. But by summer we'll be back down below 1,000 deaths per day, it will be obvious to all we've passed the peak.
The problem, is that if tomorrow we all went back to normal, things would get even worse. The public health officials are afraid we'll let our guard down too early and have a final worst wave.
-----
Meanwhile, in the US we're vaccinating about a million people per day. At that rate it will take until the end of the year before every adult gets their first shot, but a million people per day is significant. It means that every three or four days another 1% of the population becomes immune to the virus via vaccination (it takes two weeks for the first shot to take effect, but each day one million more people are getting that shot). Meanwhile, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the population has acquired natural immunity from being exposed to the virus, and this group is also growing at a similar rate from ongoing infections. So let's say each week another 3-4% of the population becomes immune. At some point later this year, most of us will be immune to the virus, via either exposure or vaccination, and we'll all start discussing Going Back to Normal.
There will be criteria for taking certain steps, we'll take other steps in phases. But the tide is turning in the US, the worst was two weeks ago, and by the end of the year most people will be returning to normal activities. Hang in there!