The Electoral College was decided by about 78,000 votes in Trump's surprise win of 2016.
This time, Biden won the Electoral College by about 44,000 votes. Although the result was clear to many experienced poll watchers by the morning following the election, it was still close enough that major news outlets didn't call the election until Saturday. The need to count all the mail-in ballots contributed to this delay in calling the election, but so did the small size of the margin -- 44,000 votes out of 153 million, or 0.03%. Few expected this election to be so close, after Biden's steady polling lead prior to the vote. This time, nobody could blame the media for focusing too much on "the emails", and social media companies tried to do a better job of policing the fake news.
Although many Democrats feel Trump's ongoing challenges to the outcome are an unprecedented "attack on democracy", it's the closeness of the Electoral College results that motivates Trump to keep fighting. If he could somehow change or discard 44,000 votes in three states, he'd continue with a second term. Even though Biden leads in the popular vote count by over six million votes.
Most of Biden's popular vote lead comes from just one state: California. Biden has a surplus of four million extra votes there. But those four million extra votes in California don't matter as much as the 44,000 extra votes he received in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
If you're a Democrat living in California, you're part of the problem, heh. You need to move to a swing state. But I'm part of the problem also, living in Maryland.
Would I move to another state after I retire solely because it is a swing state? To nearly everybody, that would feel like the tail wagging the dog, uprooting their entire life so their vote might matter. But why does anybody in California bother to vote at all? If you don't live in a swing state, it is performative civics, makes you feel good but practically useless. Why did I bother to vote at all?
I feel I cannot move until I reach retirement age in 2027, I'd be tossing away a pension and lifetime health insurance. Most families feel rooted where they live, by employment, schools and personal relationships. I imagine hardly anybody thinks, "I should move to a swing state, and then also live in a swing congressional district within that state." Which means the people who do live in swing states find this status arbitrarily forced upon them -- and maybe a lot of them don't like it, because it means they are drenched with political ads and mailers and phone calls and text messages and door knockers -- when most of them already know who they'll vote for.
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I was talking with a friend who votes for Democrats about the prospect of Trump running again in 2024. This friend replied, "Bring it on, he will only ensure a second term for Biden."
I disagree. Trump ran two extremely close elections, from the viewpoint of the Electoral College, which is the only point that matters. What if four years from now we're in another recession? What if Biden, now by far the oldest person to ever serve as President, becomes disabled or dies, throwing Democrats into disarray over who to run in 2024? What if Biden simply does a poor job of running the country, especially while hobbled by a Republican Senate, unable to fix any of our ongoing problems? If the globally unprecedented bond market bubble pops, the next four years could be a difficult ride.
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At moments like this I think I care way too much about politics, and do way too little about it.
This time, Biden won the Electoral College by about 44,000 votes. Although the result was clear to many experienced poll watchers by the morning following the election, it was still close enough that major news outlets didn't call the election until Saturday. The need to count all the mail-in ballots contributed to this delay in calling the election, but so did the small size of the margin -- 44,000 votes out of 153 million, or 0.03%. Few expected this election to be so close, after Biden's steady polling lead prior to the vote. This time, nobody could blame the media for focusing too much on "the emails", and social media companies tried to do a better job of policing the fake news.
Although many Democrats feel Trump's ongoing challenges to the outcome are an unprecedented "attack on democracy", it's the closeness of the Electoral College results that motivates Trump to keep fighting. If he could somehow change or discard 44,000 votes in three states, he'd continue with a second term. Even though Biden leads in the popular vote count by over six million votes.
Most of Biden's popular vote lead comes from just one state: California. Biden has a surplus of four million extra votes there. But those four million extra votes in California don't matter as much as the 44,000 extra votes he received in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
If you're a Democrat living in California, you're part of the problem, heh. You need to move to a swing state. But I'm part of the problem also, living in Maryland.
Would I move to another state after I retire solely because it is a swing state? To nearly everybody, that would feel like the tail wagging the dog, uprooting their entire life so their vote might matter. But why does anybody in California bother to vote at all? If you don't live in a swing state, it is performative civics, makes you feel good but practically useless. Why did I bother to vote at all?
I feel I cannot move until I reach retirement age in 2027, I'd be tossing away a pension and lifetime health insurance. Most families feel rooted where they live, by employment, schools and personal relationships. I imagine hardly anybody thinks, "I should move to a swing state, and then also live in a swing congressional district within that state." Which means the people who do live in swing states find this status arbitrarily forced upon them -- and maybe a lot of them don't like it, because it means they are drenched with political ads and mailers and phone calls and text messages and door knockers -- when most of them already know who they'll vote for.
-----
I was talking with a friend who votes for Democrats about the prospect of Trump running again in 2024. This friend replied, "Bring it on, he will only ensure a second term for Biden."
I disagree. Trump ran two extremely close elections, from the viewpoint of the Electoral College, which is the only point that matters. What if four years from now we're in another recession? What if Biden, now by far the oldest person to ever serve as President, becomes disabled or dies, throwing Democrats into disarray over who to run in 2024? What if Biden simply does a poor job of running the country, especially while hobbled by a Republican Senate, unable to fix any of our ongoing problems? If the globally unprecedented bond market bubble pops, the next four years could be a difficult ride.
-----
At moments like this I think I care way too much about politics, and do way too little about it.