12 January 2021

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Trump's final approval rating dropped to 33% from 44% last month.  It looks like encouraging his supporters to occupy the Capitol on his way out was not a broadly popular move.  Plus it feels like we're re-entering recession mode with net job losses from this Holiday Wave of COVID-19.

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It seems the Global Bond Market Bubble may have maxed out back in August; long-term US Treasury yields have more than doubled since then.  German, Swiss, and Japanese bond yields appear to have seen their all-time lows last March.  As the vaccine rollouts help the developed economies to return to a new normal later this year, savings rates will drop faster than government budget deficits and we'll see a spike in bond yields.  As people return to traveling and commuting, we'll probably experience higher inflation than we've seen in many years, which will also put pressure on central banks to increase short-term interest rates faster than is currently expected.

And then as the bond bubble bursts, higher interest rates will put pressure on stock prices, leading to the end of the current stock market bubble.  Gold and Bitcoin will follow stocks and bonds into the toilet.

2021 will be a difficult year for people's 401(k) accounts, even as the economy begins moving back toward full employment.

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VirtualExile

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