It's looking like the Christmas/New Year surge-on-top-of-surge may have peaked at 25% above the Thanksgiving surge, but I don't know whether we're going to have an additional back-to-work/school surge during the next two weeks -- of course for many people there is no workplace or classroom to go back to right now.
We're still at a very high level of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, but it looks like cases peaked January 8, hospitalizations & deaths January 12. Yeah, that's just a few days ago, so this "peak" may be premature, but I can hope.
We've also given 11 million people their first shots in the US with more on the way, that's going to start pushing the ceiling down on case numbers and especially deaths. There's also an ongoing increase in natural immunity -- after so many people have caught this damn thing, they are unlikely to catch it again for a few years at least.
We're still waiting on the J&J vaccine Trial III stats, we should get those later this month. The J&J vaccine is the most likely candidate for a third emergency approval in the US (after Pfizer and Moderna). It's also a more traditional vaccine model, requiring only one shot and normal refrigeration.
Meanwhile, we're seeing layoffs on the rise again, outpacing hiring in December for the first time since April. We're probably in the double-dip stage of this pandemic recession now, though this second dip is not nearly so panicked as the first. Those April job losses were the worst in history, with 13% of employed people laid off in one month -- there's never been anything like that in the US. The previous one-month record was September 1945, after the end of WW2, when 5% were laid off in one month, because they weren't needed at the weapons factories anymore.
I'd like to bet that we saw our all-time peak for cases last week, and our all-time peak for deaths this week. I'd like to say that as we were distracted by the end of the first Trump term that we turned the corner on COVID-19 and are heading back toward normal life later this year. But we may still lose another 150,000 lives on our way back. Turning the corner doesn't mean it's over.
We're still at a very high level of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, but it looks like cases peaked January 8, hospitalizations & deaths January 12. Yeah, that's just a few days ago, so this "peak" may be premature, but I can hope.
We've also given 11 million people their first shots in the US with more on the way, that's going to start pushing the ceiling down on case numbers and especially deaths. There's also an ongoing increase in natural immunity -- after so many people have caught this damn thing, they are unlikely to catch it again for a few years at least.
We're still waiting on the J&J vaccine Trial III stats, we should get those later this month. The J&J vaccine is the most likely candidate for a third emergency approval in the US (after Pfizer and Moderna). It's also a more traditional vaccine model, requiring only one shot and normal refrigeration.
Meanwhile, we're seeing layoffs on the rise again, outpacing hiring in December for the first time since April. We're probably in the double-dip stage of this pandemic recession now, though this second dip is not nearly so panicked as the first. Those April job losses were the worst in history, with 13% of employed people laid off in one month -- there's never been anything like that in the US. The previous one-month record was September 1945, after the end of WW2, when 5% were laid off in one month, because they weren't needed at the weapons factories anymore.
I'd like to bet that we saw our all-time peak for cases last week, and our all-time peak for deaths this week. I'd like to say that as we were distracted by the end of the first Trump term that we turned the corner on COVID-19 and are heading back toward normal life later this year. But we may still lose another 150,000 lives on our way back. Turning the corner doesn't mean it's over.