6 April 2021

m_d_h: (Default)
I've thought stocks were overvalued since the mid 1990s, LOL.  That doesn't mean I've avoided stocks entirely, but I've been a relatively conservative investor with my retirement funds for decades, compared to what my time horizon has been.  When I was younger, I'd stick between 40-60% stocks.  With retirement approaching, I'm currently at 23% stocks.

But there's overvalued, and there's OVERVALUED, and lately I've been collecting more and more ways of measuring the present overvaluation.  In some ways, stocks are more highly valued now in the US than ever before.

With respect to earnings, it doesn't look as bad, because for the past decade corporate earnings have grabbed a larger chunk of GDP than ever before.  Both Obama and Trump were kind to after-tax corporate earnings.

But with respect to broader economic measures, such as corporate revenues or GDP, stocks have never been so highly valued as they are right now.  With respect to GDP, the market capitalization of public company stocks is now twice as high as it was during the late 1990s bubble.

One rational market observer wrote that according to his calculations, there is no human time horizon long enough to compensate for the risk of buying stocks at present valuations.  In other words, no matter how young you are, if you buy stocks now and hold them until you die, you are likely to lose money.

We used to tell younger investors that if they had a time horizon of 30 years, they could ride out the coming bear markets and eventually profit by the time they retired.  Now you'd need a time horizon of 70 years to be reasonably certain of riding out the coming bear markets.

But the alternative in my TSP account would be to put all my chips on the US Dollar, and I fear that's a losing bet also, with little upside and enormous downside potential.  Right now the US Dollar is riding high, participating in 80+% of all world currency trades.  But we have competitor currencies, we aren't the world's only choice for storing value.

I used to think, rather automatically, that in the event of a bear market I'd add stocks to my retirement account.  I did that about a year ago during the brief but violent Pandemic Bear Market of 2020.  I added a modest amount of stocks, but when prices quickly rebounded I sold back down to my current defensive posture.  Now, I'm concerned that stocks are so overvalued that even a garden variety bear market (down 20%) would not correct prices.  Maybe stocks would have to fall 75% to become fairly priced again, in historical terms.

We've become accustomed to stocks increasing in value by 10%/year, even though the economy is only growing by 2%/year with 2% inflation.  That extra 6%/year has resulted from bidding up the value of stocks well beyond their fundamentals.  It's been a great thing for those who own stocks, but the math makes no sense to me anymore.  The global economy has come to resemble a gigantic Ponzi scheme, supported by the mass pursuit of ever-more imaginary levels of wealth.  I'm not sure there is such a thing as rational investing anymore.  The financial markets have uncoupled from reality.

I'm only continuing to invest because of the 100% matching --> I put away 5% and my employer matches with another 5%.  It's free money, so long as I sock it away until I turn 59 1/2.  But other than choosing the most conservative of the "LifeCycle" funds I really don't know what to advise a retirement investor today.  You're likely to lose money no matter what.  If your employer isn't matching, I'd say forget about retirement for now, enjoy your money while you have it.  Spend it on stuff you and your family will enjoy.  Create memories, not nest eggs.  Because a fox is going to eat your nest eggs before you reach retirement, you can be fairly certain of that.
m_d_h: (Default)
Due to a work emergency, T had to cancel his sleepover at B's.  But then both of my afternoon meetings were canceled, so with nothing to do and suddenly feeling CROWDED at the house I packed up and left for the condo.  I'm at the condo now, taking the afternoon off, warming up my butt for toys and watching two screens of porn.  I missed my toys over the weekend!  Yay toys!  This one feels excellent (Gape Keeper 93).  I have no meetings tomorrow until the afternoon, so I can let loose tonight!

T and I agreed to both avoid Metro for another week, but soon I will experience mass transit for the first time in over a year ...

K got his first shot yesterday, other close friends are getting theirs or have scheduled theirs, it is starting to feel like everybody who wants a shot can get one if they have computer skillz and independent transportation.

So what percentage of the population actually wants a shot bad enough to go get one?  I bet we'll know soon.  I'm thinking we'll slow down around 150 million.  That's a pure guess, heh.
m_d_h: (Default)
Instead of insisting to employer and T that I take an entire week off and disappear to the condo, I'm forever trying to fit in Bug time when nobody else needs me.  Like right now.  I saw work didn't need me, I made sure T didn't need me, (despite the gruesome nature of his work "emergency" today).

I suppose to everybody else this is obvious!  When was the last time I took an entire week off, and by myself?  Never?  Not since I lived by myself, and even then I didn't take an entire week off.  So, more than 20 years?  Since I had a week off from everything?

Holy shit.  I think my max is 3 days off from everything, when I went to Moogfest in 2019.

This is why I need to let my responsibilities roll off me.  I'm so burned out I can't even feel the fire anymore.  I'm charred through.  Ashes.  Ready to blow away.  So why haven't I?
m_d_h: (Default)
This is how I feel about my current Book of the Moon:

It's not that good, but it's useful anyway.  I think writing a 5,000-year history of China in 150 pages is tough, but they sort of do it as a bargain basement sale, with typos and incomplete sentences and words that make no sense as placed.

I'm glad for the overview, it will help me to delve deeper later, but the quality of the book sucks.  Worse than the Cliff Notes version.

-----

So what next?

This new adventure is teaching me that to finish a book I have to spend time reading the damned book.  When I was a kid that was easy.  Right now, not so easy.  But I want to finish books, I want to finish soooo many books!  I miss getting deep into books.  But there's so many books now.  And the Internet. <--

So ... I think next I'm going to read a paperback fiction novel, pages between my fingers, and it will be from the Buffyverse.  I don't have it here with me, but as the Moon flips on Sunday night, I'll flip into a fictional universe.  And I bet it won't take two weeks.  This kind of pulp fiction, I can consume it in a few days.  But this time, it will be part of this Book of the Moon stuff.  And I'll write about how it affects me.  Makes sense, Book of the Moon, Buffy, and my dreams about getting stabbed.

Retrocausality is a thing.  It's easier to see while stoned, for some reason.  I remember that from college ;-)
m_d_h: (Default)
This FMJ is all about the chafing, so I'm forever putting it back on, taking it back off, I'm wearing it most of the time, but, not all of the time, and, ow, but I'm on a walk with Dax, so, but, when I'm back home maybe it's OK,

right now, the chafing feels like a feature,

punishing my cockhead is a feature,

yeah, I'm tryin' to endure more and more of this,

but I'm not there yet
m_d_h: (Default)
counting down the best of Buffy, it's like a weekend!  Bug needed a weekend

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