m_d_h: (Default)
[personal profile] m_d_h
It is probable that AP will call Michigan for Biden by tomorrow morning.  It is possible -- flip a coin possible -- that AP will call Georgia for Biden by tomorrow morning.

If Biden wins the coin toss in Georgia, then this is over, we're done.

If Trump wins the coin toss in Georgia, then it will probably be days until AP calls Nevada, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina.  That's because these three states allow late arrival ballots -- ballots are literally still arriving in the mail tomorrow, and Friday -- and AP is not going to call these states while ballots are still arriving unless they can be sure those late arrivals can't possibly change the outcome.

So, either you wake up tomorrow and Biden has Georgia and he won, or you'll be waiting for days for another state to be called.

Nevertheless, Biden will win.  Biden is in the lead in enough states for 270 Electoral Votes, and the balance of the remaining ballots to be counted will favor Biden.  That's why I called the race earlier today when Biden pulled ahead in Michigan -- he was ahead in enough states to win, so he will win.

And Trump can't stop Biden by getting any court to stop counting the votes, because Biden is already ahead.  Stop counting, Biden wins.  Keep counting, Biden wins.  Biden will win.  But it may yet take several days before the race is called by the news organizations, because the ballots are still arriving in the mail.
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