End of July vs End of March

If we were giving one dose of COVID vaccine to every adult, instead of the two "required" for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, we'd have enough vaccine for every adult in the US by the end of March.  By the end of this month!

Instead, we've got to wait until the end of July, because we're making the mistake of giving two doses when these vaccines are effective after only one dose.

A big part of the problem is that these vaccines were tested as two-dose regimens, so the Science supports using them as two-dose regimens, and by the time we have enough convincing evidence that one dose is enough, it won't matter.

But it's a four-month difference in ending this pandemic.

We'd be done by the end of this month if we'd tested these vaccines as one-dose regimens.

Sure, two doses, separated by 3-4 weeks, are more effective than one dose.  This would be true of just about every vaccine we give, including the annual flu shot -- if you got two flu shots each winter, separated by 3-4 weeks, they'd be more effective than the one shot we get.  Repeated exposure to a pathogen causes a more robust immune response, just as repeated exercise builds strength and endurance, just as studying repeatedly for a test improves your grades.

But in an emergency, as an average of 2,000 people die each day, one shot would've been enough.  And then after everybody had received their first shot, we could've offered second shots.

We could've ended this pandemic this month.  But instead we'll wait until the end of July.  We could've saved 100,000 of the people who will die this spring and summer.

That pandemic fatigue we're all feeling -- it could've been over by the end of this month.

the people who don't want these shots

Polling data vary on this topic, but it looks like about 1/3 of US adults don't want a COVID shot.  Millions of us are sorta desperate to get our shots because we don't want to die, or watch our loved ones die, or suffer from "long COVID" if we don't die.  But about 1/3 won't bother to get their shots, for a variety of reasons.

What should we do about this?

The Biden Administration is prepared to launch a huge advertising campaign to encourage hesitant people to get their shots -- it's gonna be as much as Coca Cola spends on advertising.  They haven't pulled the trigger yet, because supplies are still limited.  But at some point between now and the end of July, we'll pass the tipping point -- there will be more shots available than people who want them.  It's difficult to believe right now, but we're just 2-3 months away from that new reality.

How can we return to normal if 1/3 of adults refuse to get their shots?

This is going to become a big debate in the US.  Many people will say, "Screw them, if they won't get their shots, let them die.  I want to reopen the schools and businesses and offices."  Public health officials will argue we need to continue various restrictions until we can convince enough people to get their shots.  We'll probably see court cases brought over whether employers can force people to get their shots, whether cruise ships can force customers to get shots, whether high schools or universities can force students to get shots.  We'll see media stories of people who died from COVID after refusing their shots.

And then we'll have COVID boosters by the end of this year, to cover the new variants.  How many people will line up for those?  I'll want my booster, but will most people have moved on by then?  Tired of even thinking about COVID.

It's difficult to believe right now, but change is gonna start happening quickly in the US.  Most of the people who want shots will have received them within a couple months, everybody who wants shots will have received them a couple months after that, and then we'll be arguing over the folks who refuse to get theirs.

update -- Biden says we'll have enough vaccine for every adult by end of May

His administration has been working to speed up vaccine delivery as compared to previous estimates.  OK, let's see you do it Biden, get those shots into our arms within the next three months!

Tuesday stuff

I started work early, but then I took an hour to do my weightlifting routine in the basement.  Body is feeling back to normal, normal GI tract and BMs.  Cooked dinner for T, then back to the work laptop for a bit, but now I'm done with work until tomorrow.

Dax's surgery is Thursday morning.  I'll try to take him on a hike tomorrow morning, and then give him a bath so he's clean for the surgery and recovery period.  He'll have multiple incisions and will need to wear a cone for a while.  I tried one last time to see whether T would join me in delaying the surgery, but no dice.  I think if the vet recommends, and one owner agrees, then you go ahead and do it.  It's not the cost, I'm just not sure it is worth it for Dax's quality of life at his age.  The benign growths aren't bothering him.  But they could continue to grow until they do bother him, so, the recommendation is to have them out now.

T has a virtual meeting tonight from 6:30-8:30, so I pledged to have dinner ready by 6:00.  But I pressed him into service to help and barely had it ready at 5:59.  Cooking takes me longer than it should, because of my poor dexterity.  But the meal turned out great.

No alcohol with dinner the past two nights.  We don't have any wine in the house currently.  We keep talking about not drinking during the work week but then we want to either celebrate something, or have a date night, or somebody had a stressful day.  We also get a monthly wine shipment of six half-bottles, so we tend to drink more often after that arrives.

Both Dax and Astrid have been more snuggly lately, perhaps because I've been more snuggly also and have increased their snuggle expectations.  Also, February was colder than normal here.  But as I wrote the other day, they are my only source of snuggles for now, so I'm making the most of it.  Not the same as snuggling with a sexy man who I either love or have a crush on, but beggars can't be choosers.

Dax seems to miss socializing with other dogs the way he did when we'd take him to day care.  I guess we're better off with him getting this surgery during Quarantine when we're home to nurse him.  Back in the olden times T and I would be negotiating over who could work from home on which days.

My employer is not speculating at all about when we'll return to the office, what steps we'll take as we phase back to normal, or what the new normal will look like.  There's a lot of curiosity about -- now that we've proven we can do our jobs from home, can't we continue to do our jobs remotely?  Can't some of us move away and continue doing our jobs remotely?  Can't we hire people who don't live around here and let them work remotely?  For much of last year, I felt like it was impossible to do my job remotely, but that has changed, I eventually figured it out.  They finally sent me a printer, but I don't see when I'll ever use it.  I did use it to print out an income tax form that I couldn't file electronically, and mailed that to the IRS on Friday.

If most of my staff worked remotely, it wouldn't do me much good to work downtown.  My boss is old fashioned and he'd definitely go to the office every day, and he'd probably lean on the workgroup supervisors to do the same.  But now that I have a home gym I'd want to work from home a couple days per week.

Sounds like B is coming to the house Friday so he can tour homes for sale here in Maryland on Saturday -- I'd sort of expected that?  I'll have a discussion with T on Friday morning once we see how Dax is doing -- I have no problem staying at the house for a weekend while Dax is recovering, instead of dumping that duty on T.  Could be nice to see B and hang out with both of them Friday evening.  Socializing!

Otherwise, if we're really going to vaccinate everybody by the end of May, I think I'm going to hang tight until then instead of gambling on things like professional haircuts or hookups.  Less than three more months of Quarantine?  I can do that.  Especially with the days getting longer and warmer, spending more time outside.  Ramping up the running mileage again.  Gotta get myself in post-Quarantine shape, like people always want to get themselves in bathing suit shape :-)