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m_d_hBiden is now ahead in states with 286 Electoral Votes. I expect he will also take the lead in Pennsylvania later today, for 306 Electoral Votes.
The most uncertain state is now Arizona, where Biden currently has a lead, but the late ballots have so far been trending toward Trump, unlike every other coin-flip state. But, as I wrote before, several news organizations already called Arizona for Biden, claiming Biden was far enough ahead to hold his lead. If Arizona does hold, then we're looking at Biden 306 / Trump 232.
But Biden doesn't need either Arizona or Georgia if he wins Pennsylvania. He'll be leading in enough states to win even if Trump somehow yanks one of them away via a recount or a successful legal challenge.
Betting markets now give Biden a 92% chance of winning. Hah, remember when they were expecting Trump to win, back on Election Night? And I disagreed, LOL.
If the networks call Pennsylvania for Biden later today, then it's over. I have no control over when a network calls a state or the race, but this was baked in for Biden way back on Wednesday morning when he took the lead in Michigan. After that point, it was just a matter of counting the rest of the votes. That's when I decided this was over.
And, already, as I expected, Trump allies are talking up him running again in 2024.
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Now we have the problem of -- what if Trump won't leave? Reportedly, Trump plans to oppose any networks calling the election for Biden, refusing to concede the race. What if Trump just refuses to leave? What if he calls the Electoral College a fraud?
One friend of mine who has contacts in the Secret Service told me that if Trump won't leave the White House on January 20, the Secret Service will firmly escort him off the premises. She said, "The people guarding him don't particularly like Trump."
Yeah, but what if Trump, as Commander in Chief, orders a military detachment to the White House to protect him from a disloyal Secret Service, and to deny Biden entry? What if Trump fires the Joint Chiefs and the Secretary of Defense and installs acting military and civilian leadership who are personally loyal to him?
I mean, what's the plan if Trump attempts a coup? What if Trump calls for his supporters to surround the White House in a show of popular force? And orders all federal police to stand down?
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What if the Republican-controlled state legislatures in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all vote to set aside the popular vote in their states, instead appointing Republican Electors to the Electoral College, as the US Constitution would seem to allow? Would the Supreme Court endorse such a scheme, overturning Biden's 7-million edge in the national popular vote, as well as overturning the popular vote in these six states, to award a second term to Trump?
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I can use statistics to model and predict how people will vote (within a margin of error), and I can use statistics to model and predict how a vote count will turn out, but I cannot use statistics to model and predict how Trump and his loyalists will act once the media declare Biden our President-Elect. Will Trump try to order the National Park Service to close the Mall so Biden cannot prepare to give his Inauguration Address? There's a lot of potential mischief available to a President who does not respect either democracy or our republican institutions.
I don't think anybody knows how far Trump will go, or when he'll fold. We've never had somebody like him in the White House. It may require people with guns to force him to leave. Or Biden may have to set up shop somewhere else until he can broker a peaceful resolution.
It's kind of up to you, Republicans. Will you accept the outcome? You lost. Can you accept that? Are you willing to take your turn on the outside? This is not a decision I can make for you.
The most uncertain state is now Arizona, where Biden currently has a lead, but the late ballots have so far been trending toward Trump, unlike every other coin-flip state. But, as I wrote before, several news organizations already called Arizona for Biden, claiming Biden was far enough ahead to hold his lead. If Arizona does hold, then we're looking at Biden 306 / Trump 232.
But Biden doesn't need either Arizona or Georgia if he wins Pennsylvania. He'll be leading in enough states to win even if Trump somehow yanks one of them away via a recount or a successful legal challenge.
Betting markets now give Biden a 92% chance of winning. Hah, remember when they were expecting Trump to win, back on Election Night? And I disagreed, LOL.
If the networks call Pennsylvania for Biden later today, then it's over. I have no control over when a network calls a state or the race, but this was baked in for Biden way back on Wednesday morning when he took the lead in Michigan. After that point, it was just a matter of counting the rest of the votes. That's when I decided this was over.
And, already, as I expected, Trump allies are talking up him running again in 2024.
-----
Now we have the problem of -- what if Trump won't leave? Reportedly, Trump plans to oppose any networks calling the election for Biden, refusing to concede the race. What if Trump just refuses to leave? What if he calls the Electoral College a fraud?
One friend of mine who has contacts in the Secret Service told me that if Trump won't leave the White House on January 20, the Secret Service will firmly escort him off the premises. She said, "The people guarding him don't particularly like Trump."
Yeah, but what if Trump, as Commander in Chief, orders a military detachment to the White House to protect him from a disloyal Secret Service, and to deny Biden entry? What if Trump fires the Joint Chiefs and the Secretary of Defense and installs acting military and civilian leadership who are personally loyal to him?
I mean, what's the plan if Trump attempts a coup? What if Trump calls for his supporters to surround the White House in a show of popular force? And orders all federal police to stand down?
-----
What if the Republican-controlled state legislatures in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all vote to set aside the popular vote in their states, instead appointing Republican Electors to the Electoral College, as the US Constitution would seem to allow? Would the Supreme Court endorse such a scheme, overturning Biden's 7-million edge in the national popular vote, as well as overturning the popular vote in these six states, to award a second term to Trump?
-----
I can use statistics to model and predict how people will vote (within a margin of error), and I can use statistics to model and predict how a vote count will turn out, but I cannot use statistics to model and predict how Trump and his loyalists will act once the media declare Biden our President-Elect. Will Trump try to order the National Park Service to close the Mall so Biden cannot prepare to give his Inauguration Address? There's a lot of potential mischief available to a President who does not respect either democracy or our republican institutions.
I don't think anybody knows how far Trump will go, or when he'll fold. We've never had somebody like him in the White House. It may require people with guns to force him to leave. Or Biden may have to set up shop somewhere else until he can broker a peaceful resolution.
It's kind of up to you, Republicans. Will you accept the outcome? You lost. Can you accept that? Are you willing to take your turn on the outside? This is not a decision I can make for you.