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I haven't looked at the global numbers in months. From a global perspective, there were never "waves" of COVID-19, it started killing people in late March, ramped up during April, and has killed about 5,000 people per day ever since. Various countries have experienced waves, but globally the virus has spread steady as a ticking clock.
Normally, about 150,000 people die each day around the world, so this is only 3-4% of the total death rate. Most people will die of something else.
Although I suspect most global COVID-19 deaths are not recorded as such, because the poor countries of the world can't effectively test, track, and trace this disease. In the rich countries we're probably missing 1/3 of the COVID-19 deaths.
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A 28-year-old physician died of COVID-19 even though he was participating in a vaccine trial. The scientists running the trial disclosed that he'd received a placebo as part of the control group.
Everyone is eagerly awaiting the first data dump from the Stage III trials, but there haven't been enough sick people yet to have a statistical judgment of vaccine effectiveness vs. placebo.
And we won't know for many months or perhaps years whether the vaccine will have lasting effectiveness. Some scientists expect that we'll need yearly boosters, as with influenza. But we simply don't know.
We do not know yet whether any of these vaccine candidates work, or how well they work, or for how long they work.
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Delivering a vaccine to the 8 billions will not be easy. We've only ever eradicated one disease via vaccination -- Smallpox. Every other disease we vaccinate against still exists, somewhere.
It's why I've said from the beginning that we're unlikely to eradicate COVID-19. Too many people will remain unvaccinated, no matter the effectiveness level of the vaccine.
So when will we declare the emergency over and just move on with our lives?
The notorious H1N1 influenza of 2009 is still circulating, but NOBODY cares. It's been one of the flu variants we vaccinate against every year since 2009. It's still killing people. But NOBODY cares.
So, come 2031, COVID-19 will still be circulating, still killing people, but NOBODY will care. I'll come back to this journal entry in 11 years to check. Somebody somewhere will die of COVID-19 every day in 2031, but NOBODY will care. I swear.
Normally, about 150,000 people die each day around the world, so this is only 3-4% of the total death rate. Most people will die of something else.
Although I suspect most global COVID-19 deaths are not recorded as such, because the poor countries of the world can't effectively test, track, and trace this disease. In the rich countries we're probably missing 1/3 of the COVID-19 deaths.
-----
A 28-year-old physician died of COVID-19 even though he was participating in a vaccine trial. The scientists running the trial disclosed that he'd received a placebo as part of the control group.
Everyone is eagerly awaiting the first data dump from the Stage III trials, but there haven't been enough sick people yet to have a statistical judgment of vaccine effectiveness vs. placebo.
And we won't know for many months or perhaps years whether the vaccine will have lasting effectiveness. Some scientists expect that we'll need yearly boosters, as with influenza. But we simply don't know.
We do not know yet whether any of these vaccine candidates work, or how well they work, or for how long they work.
-----
Delivering a vaccine to the 8 billions will not be easy. We've only ever eradicated one disease via vaccination -- Smallpox. Every other disease we vaccinate against still exists, somewhere.
It's why I've said from the beginning that we're unlikely to eradicate COVID-19. Too many people will remain unvaccinated, no matter the effectiveness level of the vaccine.
So when will we declare the emergency over and just move on with our lives?
The notorious H1N1 influenza of 2009 is still circulating, but NOBODY cares. It's been one of the flu variants we vaccinate against every year since 2009. It's still killing people. But NOBODY cares.
So, come 2031, COVID-19 will still be circulating, still killing people, but NOBODY will care. I'll come back to this journal entry in 11 years to check. Somebody somewhere will die of COVID-19 every day in 2031, but NOBODY will care. I swear.
