Our National COVID-19 Death Budget is About to Blow Up

I've written before that our country was acting like 1,000 deaths per day from COVID-19 was fine.  As deaths dropped below that number, people and organizations started to relax their restrictions with various phased reopenings and mitigated gatherings.  An example from my own family -- my niece postponed her May wedding, but went ahead with it six months later, while limiting total attendance to 10 people.  This is pretty much how most of the country behaved -- we postponed a lot of stuff during the spring, but then relaxed a bit and took more risks later in the year.  Did you read that even cruise ships resumed sailing this month from the US?

But the US is a big country, and not every region experienced the first wave of deaths during April, when for a few weeks deaths were averaging more than 2,000 per day, mainly in the Northeast.  The second wave of deaths, over 1,000/day during August, occurred mainly in the Sunbelt, from Arizona to Florida.  Now we've entered our third wave of deaths, over 1,000/day again during November, mainly in the northern Midwest & Mountain states.

November feels different from August, however.  In addition to the surge in the upper middle of the country, the rest of the country is seeing a persistent increase in cases.  We've got a combination of regional waves happening simultaneously -- a First Wave in the upper middle, and a Second Wave everywhere else.  If, as a country, we don't ramp up our restrictions again, and stop mixing households, we're going to soar above 2,000 deaths per day again soon.

But the first of our three national mixing bowl holidays is next week: Thanksgiving.  Right now, about 1% of the US population is actively infected with COVID-19.  On average, each person you gather with next week for Thanksgiving has a 1% chance of infecting you and the rest of your gathering (remember, between 1/3 and 1/2 of infected people do not feel sick).  Thanksgiving has the potential of causing an unprecedented explosion of COVID-19 cases in the US during the subsequent two-week period, with a huge increase in the daily death count during December.  If US residents were to gather for Thanksgiving like they usually do, the number of actively infected people would multiply by approximately 3x -- if they gathered again for Christmas like they usually do, the number would multiply by 3x again -- if they gathered again for New Year's Eve like they usually do and returned to work/school the following week, the number would multiply by 3x again, and by mid-January 30% of us would be sick with COVID, and 60,000 of us would be dying each day (assuming everybody who needed treatment were getting it, which would be impossible).

It's truly a nightmare scenario.  Only one thing will save us from hitting 60,000 deaths per day in January, and that's the willingness of individual families to suspend their normal holiday gatherings.  If I estimate half of families refuse to mix with other households, then the number of actively infected people goes up by 2x instead of 3x, and only 8% of us are sick in January, and "only" 16,000 of us will be dying each day.

We need a national lockdown for the holidays.  But we're not going to do that under this President, he doesn't care.  So, it's up to you.  If half of you skip the holidays, then we'll limit the damage to 16,000 deaths per day in January, instead of 60,000 deaths per day in January.

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The difficult thing about trying to model COVID-19 cases in the US, is that a large chunk of us do change our behaviors as deaths increase, as somebody we know dies.  So the very worst case scenarios do not happen.  But first the deaths have to increase, somebody we know has to die.  And they are increasing.  But they're probably not increasing enough to stop Thanksgiving.  So we're going to blow well beyond 1,000 deaths per day during December, with a national hospital staffing shortage.  And then maybe enough of us will cancel Christmas & New Years to avoid 60,000 deaths per day during January.

Plumbers, Masks, etc.

I have spent more time with more people inside my personal space over the past two weeks than I have since before Quarantine began.  By far.  We've had a termite inspection, a crew of four doing construction in the basement, a crew of two fixing our water heater, and my sister -- all at the house.  I've had the front desk clerk and a plumber inside the tiny condo (the condo doesn't even feel six feet wide, heh).  And I took T to a medical center for his outpatient procedure, where there were staff and other people in a "socially distanced" waiting room, but I still couldn't stay six feet away from everybody all the time.

I am way way way over my normal COVID-19 exposure limit of an occasional trip to the liquor store.

All of these encounters except for my sister's visit involved mutual mask wearing, although the quality and competence of other people's mask wearing varied, and I couldn't always remain six feet away from them, especially when the plumbers wanted me to show them the problems, and then wanted to show me how they fixed them.  While at the condo I had the windows open and the ceiling fan running, which hopefully helped.

When I first anticipated K's departure, I thought I'd invite another kinkster buddy into my Quarantine Bubble for play every couple of weeks, but it wasn't long before I was super busy with all this non-work stuff and now I feel my COVID radiation meter is in the red zone from interacting with all these people who I don't live with.  I want a 14-day break from other humans.

I need a haircut, but more badly I need a break from tempting fate.  I'm wondering what I'd look like if I had T give me a simple buzz cut.  K's haircuts were high quality; T doesn't have that kind of skill with hair (not to blame him, just a fact, mine wouldn't be that good either -- all I do with T's hair is buzz it all off every two weeks).

Although T is trying to arrange Turkey Day and Christmas Eve two-household pods for us, I'd be OK with not seeing an additional human until next year at this point.  But by then B's husband should have moved away, and B will probably show up much more often -- and I should get much more Time to Self at the house as T spends overnights with B.

Let's hope the rest of the house and condo hold together and keep any infestations away until After the Vaccine.

short discussion with Public Health Friend

I ran the COVID-19 numbers I estimated below by my Public Health Friend and he basically responded, "I know, we know, every public health official has been saying this stuff for months, and nobody is listening."

He said, "Either have a Zoom Thanksgiving or you'll have an ICU Christmas."

officially restarting my basement weightlifting!

How many weeks ago did I have to pause my weightlifting because of all the basement prep?  And the related tricep injury from crawling around like a crab.  Well, I'm back at it this morning, after a great 4-mile hike with Dax.

Taking it easy on the weights as I always do after a break, but I'm adding one new exercise to the mix to work my pecs a bit more, now that Matt from Reddit is masturbating to my pecs LOL.  If you cum because of my muscles I will work harder on them! :o)

the instant Quarantine LDR, heh

Matt from Reddit has quickly become a daily fixture -- we're texting and sending each other HOT videos.  He's masturbating to my videos and sending me videos of his orgasms; I'm not allowed to cum or touch my cock unless the Oracle of the Cum Deck allows so I'm just getting even HORNIER.  It's exactly what he requested in his personal ad, and I was happy to oblige.  I'm totally his physical type, he's one of my physical types, he's smart and no drama.  We don't have everything in common, he's not into butt toys for example (he's not even into butts!), or any other kink as far as I can tell so far.  But we don't need to have everything in common.  It's a nonexclusive Quarantine LDR.  We keep each other virtual company, we turn each other on with pics and vids.

He lives alone in a condo and is taking Quarantine so very seriously for a younger fella.  Makes me think he's generally a trustworthy and responsible guy.  But I know about 0.1% about him, and vice versa.  But I respect people who respect COVID-19.

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My workload has lightened up so much this week, wow, hasn't been this slow since before Quarantine.  It feels nice.  I still may have to work for a few hours on Sunday, but, this week has felt nice.  It's like a workcation -- on the clock, but relaxing nonetheless.

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I wrote about this a bit earlier, but having somebody who cares enough about how I look to send me videos of himself shooting his sperm while watching videos of me -- is super motivating for exercise and diet.  Reminds me of when Sir Zero declared that I must get my weight down to 160 for our trip to SF, or he'd shut me in the closet for a day as punishment.  Matt isn't acting like a Sir in that way, but having that sort of attention, an attention that cares about how I look, yay.  It's making a difference in my life already.  I expect he feels something similar.  That somebody cares.

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K had insisted that I'd fall in love again, though I'm not calling this "love", but to have somebody new in my life -- it's been a while.  And for now, safer that the somebody new is far away and not breathing germs into my personal space.

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Can't wait to get back to the condo tomorrow for Time to Self, but it will only be for one night, I have to help T put things back into the basement on Sunday -- and also work on our joint annual budget, so we can implement our new expense-sharing system.  And I'll probably need to do my job for a few hours on Sunday.  So, one night at the condo, but can't wait!  I wish I could take tomorrow off.  I'll definitely quit work early tomorrow, the only question is how early.

I'm gonna try running 5 miles in the morning before I leave.

aftercare, endorphins, questions

As Luke comforted Matt in the master bed, his boy slowly calmed down.  The combination of competent aftercare and endorphins did what they're supposed to do, after a strenuous BDSM session.

Matt hit his deepest relaxation point after about 20 minutes of snuggles and soft reassurances, but then Luke sensed a reversal, with heartbeat and breathing picking up a bit, muscles tensing a bit.

Luke offered, "Boy Matt, I give you permission to speak freely now, you have earned this privilege.  Until one of us gets up from this bed."

Matt rolled away a few inches, so he could stretch, and open his eyes.  On this familiar master bed, where he has recently become used to sleeping with Tate, but this android "Luke" was "snuggling" with him instead.  After pushing him to the limit on the St. Andrew's cross.  And then immediately switching to aftercare -- better aftercare than most humans had offered him in the past.  The oft-neglected necessity of aftercare for the sub.

Matt breathed, cleared his throat, and asked his first question, such a necessary question, "Sir Luke, are you sentient?"

Hearing this, Luke pulled Matt back toward him, and pinched both of his nipples while wrapping around him from behind.  Pinched harder, steadily harder, "Such a question is irrelevant, boy Matt.  You will respect me as your Sir, the same way you would respect any Sir."  Pinching harder.  And harder.

"Aaaagh, Fuck, yes, Sir, I respect you.  I'm sorry, Sir."

Then Luke immediately let go of his nipples.  "Good boy.  Don't waste our time counting angels on a pin.  Do you have other, more relevant things to say, though?"

Matt waited a moment for the nipple pain to die.

"Thank you, Sir, for that session.  You were right, I did need it."  Luke responded with a more snuggly full-body hold from behind, nuzzling the back of Matt's head with his nose and lips.  Matt felt like this was unreal.  An android?  But had to be an android.  But ... yeah, "Turing test" level conversation skills, plus max initiative and max creativity.  He had to respect the work that went into creating Luke, plus however Tate and Alex were configuring him.  This felt revolutionary.

"Sir, Tate had spoken before he left of me having two daily sessions with you, but I'm not sure I can take that level of abuse twice per day."

Luke needed zero time to think or construct his response, "Levels of abuse conform to what you need and what you can handle at the time.  We will have another session this evening, boy.  Do not prejudge what you are able to handle."

"Yes, Sir."

They were quiet for a while, Matt found himself caressing Luke's "skin" on the forearms wrapped around his chest.  The surface of the android felt somewhat off, not 100% convincing as skin, bone, and muscle; but nevertheless warm and comforting.

Then, Matt caught his breath, his eyes started tearing up again, "I had to stop us because I felt like I was in the car accident again."

Somehow, Luke became even more snuggly and supportive, and asked, "Tell me what it felt like to be in 'the car accident'."

But it had wrecked in less than a second, and ... were his memories of it even real, or had he constructed "memories" for the necessity of having to talk with people about what he'd experienced.  "It was a very fast ... loud bang ... an impossible smashing of everything.  I'm not even sure these memories of it are real.  And then I was unconscious, for a long time.  And when I came around, I was already a cyborg -- half my brain had been replaced by state-of-the-art circuitry.  My parents were both dead.  Everything changed in the time it takes me to inhale."

"I'm sorry.  You experienced a deep trauma that nobody can fix."

"Yes, Sir, some things are unfixable."

More quiet time.  Matt remembered Tate wanted him to sleep with Luke whenever Tate is away.  He wondered whether Luke experienced dreams, or simply shut himself down when not in use.

Would've been nice to have a presence like Luke's while he was in "storage" for those subjective hundreds of years.  Somebody to talk with.

Luke interrupted, "You are remembering a different trauma?  Your body is tensing again."

Matt took a big breath, exhaled, "Yes, Sir.  A different time when everything in my life changed.  Although this event was ultimately reversible, no physical harm done, nobody died."

"If you experienced it, if you can remember it now, this trauma was not fully reversible," Luke observed, noting the current physical effects of reminiscence on Matt's body.

Damn, he's so fucking correct.  "I'd been abandoned, I had to spend a very long time by myself, nobody else.  Solitary confinement for what felt like years.  Then just as suddenly, POP, back into the social world of shared timescale.  Tate was the person who brought me back.  The first person who touched me, who cared about me.  And then he came home with me.  And he still cares about me."

More snuggles from behind, kisses on the back of his neck.  "Yes, Sir Tate definitely cares about you.  That's why I'm here, because he never wants you to feel abandoned like that again."

Goddess, really?  Tate worries about him feeling abandoned?  "Thank you, Sir.  But you aren't Tate, which I don't mean as criticism in any way.  You're very different, you are your own ... presence.  I would never mistake you for him, or vice versa."  Turing test definitely passed, Matt decided.  Luke is, if anything, too insightful: an entire clinic of psychotherapists amped up by a 100-core terahertz CPU.  If Marco can mass produce these kinds of androids, a lot of professions will evaporate -- like who needs elevator attendants or switchboard operators or snowplow drivers anymore.  And not just the "oldest profession" of sex work.

"Of course not.  My job is not to imitate or replace Tate.  My job is to ... tenderize you for him.  Tate told me he likes the feel of your ass when it is 'red'.  He wondered how much of your body could feel the same way to his hands by the time he returns."

Matt couldn't help but shiver and shrink smaller at this thought, yikes, fuck, yet Luke held him softly and securely and licked his neck and the back of his ear.  Android saliva drying on his skin.  Matt was beginning to feel the urge to pee, but that would end this "speaking freely" moment that was blowing his mind.

"Sir, I'll have time to do some of my podcast work in between these sessions?  And I understand you're to sleep with me when Tate is not here."

"Yes, boy.  A morning dungeon session after breakfast, an evening dungeon session after dinner, after which I will partially bind you each night to this bed, and sleep next to you.  This is your off-Tate schedule."

"What if I wanted to travel to Toronto, on my own, for a few days?"

Luke slapped him on his tender ass, but not too strongly, as a reminder of Matt's place in this household hierarchy, "You clear that with Tate, boy, and then I'll wait here until I'm needed again.  By the way, I'm not approved for travel at this time, as a beta test unit I must remain privately at the customer's home.  The company is not responsible for my interactions with 'strangers'."

Matt felt like Luke had violated their "fourth wall", but, appropriately so, as he had to pee and this conversation was almost over, and he needed to know that Luke has his own limits and boundary conditions.

Matt felt like one more brave question of his own, "How do you feel, Sir, about being a 'beta test' unit?"

A stronger slap on the ass, not unexpected, "How do you feel, boy, about being a 'beta test' unit?  You are surely continually tested by your environment and your social relationships, at least as much as I am.  You were born a blank slate, and reality imprints upon you with its arbitrary scribbles.  Now, get up, go pee, shower, moisturize your tender ass, and attend to your work.  I must go plug into my base unit for analysis and updates."

"Yes, Sir.  Thank you, Sir.  I'll see you tonight." And Matt complied with the directions from his android Sir.